中航西飞：军民布局齐发力，国内外协同景气高

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for the stock over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.33 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.95%, and a net profit of 656 million yuan, up 16.25% year-on-year. The second quarter alone saw a revenue of 11.87 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.25% year-on-year growth and a 40.44% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for large aircraft and military equipment, with a positive growth trend anticipated in the short to medium term [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the gross margin was 5.89%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved by 0.34 percentage points to 3.23% [1]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 46.47 billion yuan, 53.67 billion yuan, and 62.28 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits adjusted to 1.15 billion yuan, 1.45 billion yuan, and 1.80 billion yuan for the same period [3][6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 72.91 billion yuan in 2024, with total liabilities of 52.24 billion yuan, resulting in a debt ratio of approximately 71.65% [6][8]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the large and medium-sized aircraft sector in China, with significant orders from major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, which plans to take delivery of 300 C919 aircraft between 2024 and 2031 [2]. - The report highlights the stable performance of the commercial aviation sector and the potential for increased production capacity, particularly with the establishment of a second assembly plant for the C919 aircraft [2]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 58x, 46x, and 37x, respectively, indicating a gradual improvement in valuation as earnings grow [3][4]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 66.79 billion yuan, with a current share price of 24.01 yuan [4].