BILIBILI-哔哩哔哩-W：广告及游戏业务驱动毛利率稳健增长，Q3 Non-GAAP运营利润盈利

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Bilibili with a target price of $21.00 USD / 163.77 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 36.61% / 35.01% from the current stock price [2][6][3]. Core Insights - Bilibili's Q2 revenue reached 6.13 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, slightly above market expectations. The gross margin improved to 29.9%, up 6.8 percentage points, primarily driven by the growth in high-margin advertising and gaming businesses [2][4]. - The company expects to achieve Non-GAAP operating profit in Q3, with revenue projected to grow by 22.4% year-on-year to 7.1 billion RMB, and gross margin expected to increase to 35% [2][4]. - The advertising business is benefiting from increased demand in gaming and e-commerce, with annual advertising revenue expected to grow by 24% [2][4]. - User metrics show steady growth, with DAU increasing by 5.2% to 100 million and MAU growing by 3.7% to 340 million [2][4]. - The gaming segment is projected to generate significant revenue, with expectations of 2.5 billion RMB in 2024 and 5 billion RMB in 2025 from the game "Three Kingdoms" [2][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31 is forecasted to grow from 22.53 billion RMB in 2023 to 31.25 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8% [4][5]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 1.3 billion RMB in 2024 to a profit of 1.58 billion RMB in 2026, with net profit margins turning positive by 2025 [4][5]. - The gross margin is projected to increase significantly from 24.2% in 2023 to 34.6% by 2026, indicating improved operational efficiency [4][5]. Market Position - Bilibili's market capitalization stands at$ 6.365 billion USD, with major shareholders including Chen Rui at 12% [3][4]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $18.19 and a low of$ 8.80, indicating volatility in its market performance [3][4].