合盛硅业：景气承压，静待复苏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.27 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 980 million yuan, a decrease of 45.1% year-on-year [4]. - The silicon industry chain remains under pressure, with the company's performance affected by a prolonged downturn since the second half of 2022, leading to a decline in profitability [4]. - There is potential for recovery in the organic silicon market, as new capacity additions are expected to decrease significantly after 2024, which may lead to improved market conditions [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.86 billion yuan, up 26.5% year-on-year and 45.1% quarter-on-quarter. However, the net profit for the same quarter was 450 million yuan, down 42.2% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The gross margin for industrial silicon was 29.5%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the gross margin for organic silicon dropped to 16.3%, a decrease of 6.2 percentage points compared to H1 2023 [4]. Industry Position - The company is one of the largest and most complete players in China's silicon-based new materials industry, with significant production capacities in industrial silicon, organic silicon monomers, and polysilicon [4]. - The company has established strong partnerships with leading enterprises in downstream industries, reinforcing its position as an industry leader [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expanding its downstream industrial chain through projects like the photovoltaic integrated industrial park in Xinjiang and the green electricity-silicon circular economy production base in Yunnan [5]. - The company has made significant advancements in silicon carbide materials, achieving high production yields and technological breakthroughs, positioning itself competitively in the market [5]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 2.14 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, and 3.15 billion yuan, respectively [5].