FOSUN INTL(00656) 安信国际证券·2024-09-10 07:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 7.5 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 88% from the current price of 4.0 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 97.8 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47% to 720 million RMB, primarily due to a weak consumer environment and the impact of asset disposals [3][4]. - The health segment is focusing on innovative drugs and high-value medical devices, with a revenue of 23.26 billion RMB, down 2.4% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 43% to 510 million RMB [3][4]. - The leisure segment faced pressure from the consumer environment, with revenue of 43.17 billion RMB, a growth of 0.4%, but net profit dropped by 78% to 164 million RMB [3][4]. - The insurance business remained stable, with revenue of 26.95 billion RMB, a growth of 5.9%, while net profit decreased by 86% to 2.7 million RMB due to one-time asset disposals [3][4]. - The company maintains a stable debt leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 50.2% as of June 2024, slightly down from the end of 2023 [3][4]. Financial Summary - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 211.46 billion RMB, with a projected net profit of 4.16 billion RMB, corresponding to an EPS of 0.29 HKD [4][6]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 4.1% by 2026 [4][14]. - The average debt cost is 5.8%, which has increased due to the impact of US dollar interest rate hikes [3][4]. Valuation Analysis - The company employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation and NAV methods, estimating a reasonable market value of 601 billion HKD, leading to a target price of 7.3 HKD based on comparable company analysis [7][8]. - The NAV method suggests a reasonable market value of 635 billion HKD, resulting in a target price of 7.8 HKD [7][10]. - The combined target price from both valuation methods is set at 7.5 HKD [7][10].