xilinmen(603008) 华创证券·2024-09-10 08:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 17.1 RMB, compared to the current price of 13.83 RMB [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue/net profit attributable to parent/non-GAAP net profit of 3.96/0.23/0.22 billion RMB in H1 2024, up 4.0%/5.1%/5.1% YoY [1] - Q2 2024 revenue/net profit attributable to parent/non-GAAP net profit was 2.20/0.16/0.15 billion RMB, down 6.0%/0.6%/8.3% YoY [1] - The company is expanding overseas markets and developing new customers, with strong growth in Latin America, Europe, and Belt and Road regions [1] - Domestic market strategy focuses on multi-channel expansion, including offline retail, hotel, and online channels [1] - Gross margin remained stable at 34.8% in H1 2024, with net profit margin improving by 0.1 pct to 5.9% [1] Financial Performance - 2024E/2025E/2026E revenue is projected at 9.24/10.13/10.95 billion RMB, with YoY growth of 6.4%/9.7%/8.0% [2] - 2024E/2025E/2026E net profit attributable to parent is forecasted at 539/603/671 million RMB, with YoY growth of 25.7%/11.9%/11.3% [2] - 2024E/2025E/2026E EPS is estimated at 1.42/1.59/1.77 RMB, with P/E ratios of 10/9/8x [2] Channel Development - As of June 2024, the company had 3,485 Xilinmen stores, 1,630 Ximian stores, and 474 MD (including Chateau d'Ax) stores, with net changes of -66/+18/-16 stores compared to the beginning of the year [1] - The company is strengthening cooperation with leading hotel chains and expanding to regional chains [1] - Online channels are being expanded through platforms like Pinduoduo and short video marketing [1] Valuation and Projections - The company is valued at 12x 2024E P/E, implying a target price of 17.1 RMB [1] - 2024-2026 net profit is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.6% [2] - ROE is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2023A to 14.0% in 2026E [5]