雪峰科技：新疆煤炭驱动民爆高景气，强强联合供给新看点

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Xuefeng Technology (603227 SH) with a target price of 7 04 yuan [6] Core Views - Xuefeng Technology is a dual main business leader in Xinjiang focusing on civil explosives and energy chemicals The company has established a synergistic development system for both businesses and is the only producer of ammonium nitrate and nitro compound fertilizer in Xinjiang [1] - The civil explosives sector is benefiting from high demand driven by coal mining and infrastructure projects in Xinjiang The company has strong production capacity and technical capabilities in this sector [2] - The energy chemicals sector continues to contribute to performance with products like urea and melamine The company has significant production capacity and market share in these products [3] - The company is the sole producer of ammonium nitrate in Xinjiang giving it pricing power and profitability advantages in this market [4] Business Summary Civil Explosives Sector - The civil explosives industry is experiencing high demand due to increased capital expenditure in coal mining and metal mining sectors The industry is also seeing consolidation with the top 10 companies expected to account for 60% of production value by 2025 [2] - Xuefeng Technology has a comprehensive service model covering production transportation sales and engineering blasting The company has an annual production capacity of 117 500 tons of industrial explosives and 18 9 million electronic detonators [2] - A strategic acquisition by Guangdong Hongda is expected to bring new growth opportunities including capacity expansion and cross provincial integration [2] Energy Chemicals Sector - The company produces urea melamine ammonium nitrate and nitro compound fertilizer through its subsidiary Yuxiang Huyang The production capacity for these products is 21 60 and 90 thousand tons respectively [3] - Urea production is operating at high capacity utilization rates with strong demand in 2024 Melamine production also saw a significant increase in sales volume in 2023 [3] - The company is the only producer of ammonium nitrate in Xinjiang with a production capacity of 660 thousand tons The business has maintained high gross margins with a 38 09% gross margin in 2023 [4] Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 7 021 billion yuan in 2023 with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 854 million yuan The revenue growth rate was 1 72% year on year [5] - The company's revenue is heavily concentrated in Xinjiang accounting for 80% of total revenue in 2023 [11] - The gross margin for civil explosives products was 52 29% in 2023 while the energy chemicals sector had a gross margin of 22 32% [16] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company of 796 907 and 1 007 billion yuan for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively The corresponding PE ratios are 9x 8x and 7x [4][5] - The company's valuation is significantly lower than its peers with an average PE of 18x 15x and 13x for comparable companies in 2024 2025 and 2026 [56]