化肥概念持续拉升，博源化工（000683）、青松建化（600425）双双涨停，雪峰科技（603227）、凯龙 股份（002783）、鲁西化工（000830）、华鲁恒升（600426）、云天化（600096）、星湖科技 （600866）等跟涨。 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《南美需求启动，关注双草投资机 会》，2025.7.18 2.《秋季备肥启动，关注钾肥、磷肥 投资机会》，2025.7.14 3.《有机硅更新：陶氏将关闭英国工 厂 ， 有 机 硅 产 能 有 力 出 清 》 ， 2025.7.11 4.《深海科技趋势下的化工蓝海！》， 2025.7.7 5.《政策持续发力"反内卷"，产能 过剩行业迎结构性改善契机》， 2025.7.7 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 20 日 涨价主线！关注 TDI、草铵膦、草甘 膦等 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周基础化工板块表现好于大盘。根据 Wind，本周（7/11-7/18）上证综指 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [2][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the closure of Dow's organic silicon production capacity in Barry, UK, which is expected to increase domestic export demand and support the upstream industrial silicon costs, indicating a potential reversal in the organic silicon industry [4][5]. - The demand for high-end AI PCBs is projected to surge due to the continuous growth in computing power requirements, driven by GPU, ASIC, and 800G switch technologies [4]. - The report notes that the recent tariff announcements from the US on imports from Southeast Asia are lower than expected, stabilizing pessimistic market sentiments [4]. Industry Dynamics - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a significant increase in oil supply led by non-OPEC countries, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The report mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors [5]. - Natural gas exports from the US are anticipated to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch in the organic silicon sector include Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Chemical, and Xingfa Group [4]. - In the PCB sector, recommended companies include Shengquan Group, Dongcai Technology, Lianrui New Materials, Yake Technology, Tiancheng Technology, and Jiuri New Materials [4]. - For traditional cyclical stocks, the report suggests focusing on leading companies in various segments such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Price Trends - The report provides specific price movements for various chemical products, such as PTA prices decreasing by 2.8% to 4715 RMB/ton, while MEG prices increased by 0.7% to 4409 RMB/ton [11]. - Urea prices rose by 2.9% to 1800 RMB/ton, while phosphate prices remained stable [12]. - The report notes that the price of DMC increased by 1.9% to 11000 RMB/ton, indicating a recovery in the organic silicon market [15].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of 51% equity in Nanbu Yongsheng by Xuefeng Technology marks a strategic move to enhance its position in the civil explosives industry and expand its market presence in Southwest China [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xuefeng Technology achieved a revenue of 6.101 billion yuan and a net profit of 668 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 647 million yuan after deducting non-recurring items [1]. - The company produced 119,500 tons of industrial explosives, including 48,000 tons of packaged explosives and 71,500 tons of mixed explosives, along with 11.48 million electronic detonators [1]. - Xuefeng Technology has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, distributing a total of 643 million yuan in dividends over the past three years [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The civil explosives industry is characterized by high regulatory barriers and significant operational challenges due to its hazardous nature, with strict oversight from national and provincial authorities [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Safety Development of Civil Explosives Industry" encourages the restructuring and integration of enterprises, aiming to create 3-5 large integrated companies with strong industry influence and international competitiveness [2]. - The civil explosives market in Sichuan is robust, ranking fourth in annual explosive production in China, with a market structure dominated by leading enterprises [3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is seen as a critical step for Xuefeng Technology to deepen its dual business strategy of "civil explosives + energy chemicals" and to establish a strategic foothold in the Southwest market [4]. - The partnership with Nanbu Yongsheng, which has a production capacity of 26,000 tons of explosives, is expected to leverage both companies' strengths in brand recognition, profitability, and operational management [3][4]. - Xuefeng Technology aims to create a synergistic effect from the merger, enhancing its capabilities in the civil explosives sector and contributing to the high-quality development of the industry [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.80 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the Xinjiang explosives market and has a unique position as the only ammonium nitrate producer in the region, which provides a significant competitive advantage [7][9]. - The report anticipates sustained high prices for explosives due to the growth of the Xinjiang coal industry, with projections indicating a potential market for blasting services exceeding 10 billion CNY by 2030 [7][9]. - Following the acquisition by Guangdong Hongda, the company is expected to see significant capacity injections and operational efficiency improvements, enhancing its growth prospects [7][9][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 6,101 million CNY, 6,619 million CNY, 7,302 million CNY, and 8,019 million CNY respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -13.1%, 8.5%, 10.3%, and 9.8% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 668 million CNY in 2024A, increasing to 1,080 million CNY by 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of -21.7%, 3.1%, 28.8%, and 21.6% [2]. - Earnings per share are expected to rise from 0.62 CNY in 2024A to 1.01 CNY in 2027E, with price-to-earnings ratios decreasing from 15x in 2024 to 9x in 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive industrial chain that includes upstream natural gas transportation, liquefaction, and deep processing, as well as downstream explosive products and blasting engineering services [18][25]. - The company’s explosive production capacity is projected to reach 119,500 tons by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 100% [35]. - The company’s ammonium nitrate production capacity is 660,000 tons per year, with a current utilization rate of approximately 68% [7][25]. Market Position - The company controls a significant portion of the explosive distribution in Northern Xinjiang, holding stakes in 11 out of 25 distribution companies in the region [17]. - The report highlights the expected stability in the market structure for mixed explosives, with the company positioned to benefit from the high demand driven by the coal industry [7][9]. Growth Drivers - The anticipated injection of at least 150,000 tons of explosive capacity from Guangdong Hongda over the next three years is expected to significantly enhance the company's growth trajectory [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for cost reductions in natural gas procurement, which could substantially increase profit margins [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.80 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in the Xinjiang explosives market, with a unique position as the only ammonium nitrate producer in the region. The report highlights the company's strong growth potential driven by the rising coal production in Xinjiang and the expected increase in explosive prices [7][9]. - The acquisition by Guangdong Hongda is expected to enhance production capacity and operational efficiency, providing significant growth opportunities for the company [7][9]. - The report forecasts profit expectations of 689 million CNY, 888 million CNY, and 1.08 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 11x, and 9x [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 6,101 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 13.1%. However, growth is expected to resume in subsequent years with increases of 8.5%, 10.3%, and 9.8% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 668 million CNY in 2024, with a significant decline of 21.7%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 3.1%, 28.8%, and 21.6% in the following years [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.62 CNY in 2024 to 1.01 CNY in 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive industrial chain that includes upstream natural gas transportation, liquefaction, and deep processing, as well as downstream explosive products and blasting engineering services [18]. - The company’s explosive production capacity is expected to reach 119,500 tons by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 100% [35]. - The report emphasizes the scarcity of the company's ammonium nitrate production capacity, which is currently at 660,000 tons per year, with a utilization rate of approximately 68% [7][9]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a key player in the Xinjiang coal chemical industry, benefiting from the expected doubling of the local explosives market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [12][24]. - The report notes that the company controls a significant portion of the explosive distribution in Northern Xinjiang, which positions it well to capitalize on the high demand for explosives in the region [17][35].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the high demand in the Xinjiang civil explosives market, being the only producer of ammonium nitrate in the region, which provides both supply and licensing advantages [3][9]. - Following the acquisition by Guangdong Hongda, the company is expected to receive additional civil explosive capacity and optimized regional layout, leading to significant revenue and profit elasticity [3][9]. - Projected net profits for the company are estimated to reach 750 million, 890 million, and 940 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3][9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the civil explosives and chemical sectors, covering the entire civil explosives industry chain, including upstream natural gas transportation, LNG, and ammonium nitrate production, as well as downstream blasting engineering and mining services [6][20]. - The company was established in 1958 and has undergone several transformations, becoming a joint-stock company in 2011 [20][21]. Civil Explosives Sector - The civil explosives market in Xinjiang is experiencing rapid growth due to the release of coal production capacity, with the company benefiting from its comprehensive industry chain [7][54]. - The company has a production capacity of 119,500 tons of industrial explosives and is the only producer of ammonium nitrate in Xinjiang, with a capacity of 660,000 tons per year [7][22]. - The market share of leading companies in the civil explosives industry is increasing, with the CR10 rising from 44% in 2017 to 62% in 2024 [7][59]. Chemical Sector - The company has expanded its chemical production capabilities through the acquisition of Xinjiang Yuxiang HuYang Chemical Co., which includes products like compound fertilizers, melamine, and ammonium nitrate [8][24]. - By the end of 2024, the company’s production capacities for melamine, urea, nitro compound fertilizer, and ammonium nitrate are projected to reach 210,000, 600,000, 900,000, and 660,000 tons per year, respectively [8][25]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown fluctuations, with a significant increase in revenue from 2.61 billion yuan in 2021 to 6.90 billion yuan in 2022, followed by a decline in 2024 due to low prices of bulk chemicals [31][37]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.10 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year [31][41]. Market Dynamics - The demand for civil explosives is primarily driven by mining activities, with coal mining accounting for a significant portion of the demand [59][65]. - Xinjiang's coal production is expected to continue growing, supported by national policies and the region's rich coal resources, which will further drive the demand for civil explosives [69][73].

Core Viewpoint - Urumqi, as the capital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, is a strategic hub for the "Belt and Road" initiative and is focusing on building a modern industrial system through the "Industrial Strong City" strategy, emphasizing advanced manufacturing, modern services, and urban agriculture [1][4][15]. Group 1: Economic Performance - Urumqi's GDP for 2024 is projected to reach 450.216 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, surpassing the national average [4][5]. - The primary industry is expected to achieve an added value of 32.47 billion yuan, growing by 6.6%; the secondary industry is projected to reach 1,327.33 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.8%; and the tertiary industry is anticipated to add 3,142.36 billion yuan, growing by 3.3% [5][7]. Group 2: Industrial Development - Urumqi is implementing the "5+2" modern industrial system, focusing on energy and chemical, equipment manufacturing, new materials, biomedicine, and electronic information, along with emerging industries like new energy and environmental protection [15][17]. - The city has seen a significant increase in industrial investment, with 138 industrial projects attracting a total investment of 105.66 billion yuan, marking a 25.8% increase year-on-year [7][9]. Group 3: New Quality Productive Forces - The concept of "New Quality Productive Forces" emphasizes innovation-driven development, characterized by high-tech, high-efficiency, and high-quality production, aligning with the new development philosophy [2][3][11]. - Urumqi is actively responding to national strategies by implementing policies that encourage the development of modern agriculture, green energy, and cultural tourism, among others [11][12]. Group 4: Policy Framework - The Urumqi government has introduced several policies to support the growth of new industries, including financial incentives for high-tech enterprises and measures to promote the development of industrial parks [11][12]. - The "Western Region Encouraged Industry Directory" has added 57 new encouraged industry items for Xinjiang, covering modern agriculture, green energy, and textile industries, providing strong policy support for regional industrial upgrades [11][12]. Group 5: Future Trends - Urumqi is focusing on high-end manufacturing and new material clusters, aiming to create three trillion-level advanced manufacturing clusters by 2025 [28][29]. - The city is also building a future industry ecosystem driven by "three new" initiatives, including commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [30]. - Urumqi is committed to a green low-carbon transformation, with plans to increase the share of new energy installations to over 50% by 2025 [31].

Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.20 CNY per share (before tax) for its A shares [1] - The total cash dividend distribution amounts to 214,338,537.80 CNY based on a total share capital of 1,071,692,689 shares [1] - Key dates include the record date on June 4, 2025, and the ex-dividend date on June 5, 2025 [1] Dividend Distribution Plan - The profit distribution plan was approved by the company's shareholders meeting [1] - The cash dividend will be distributed to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, as of the close of trading on the record date [1] Taxation Information - For individual shareholders holding unrestricted circulating shares, the actual cash dividend after tax is 0.18 CNY per share due to a 10% withholding tax [4][6] - Shareholders holding shares for less than one month will incur a 20% tax on the full dividend amount, while those holding for more than one month but less than one year will incur a 10% tax [3] - Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) will also receive a net dividend of 0.18 CNY per share after a 10% withholding tax [6]