BRIGHT DAIRY(600597) 国元证券·2024-09-10 10:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 12.714 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.08%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million yuan, down 17.03% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue decline in the Shanghai region was less severe compared to other regions, indicating a strong competitive position in that area [1]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 483 million yuan, 543 million yuan, and 592 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 50.08%, 12.41%, and 9.11% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue from liquid milk, other dairy products, and livestock products was 7.231 billion yuan, 4.092 billion yuan, and 600 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 9.67%, 2.33%, and 42.99% [1]. - The net profit margin and gross margin for H1 2024 were 2.21% and 19.83%, respectively, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [2]. - The company’s revenue from Shanghai was 3.748 billion yuan, down 5.75% year-on-year, while revenue from other regions decreased by 19.87% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 6.297 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.92%, with liquid milk revenue of 3.716 billion yuan, down 5.52% [1]. - The revenue from direct sales channels decreased by 14.93% in H1 2024, while revenue from distributor channels decreased by 8.32% [1]. Future Projections - The company is projected to have a revenue of 24.349 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 8.06%, followed by a recovery in 2025 with a growth of 4.57% [3]. - The expected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.35 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.43 yuan, respectively [8].