QIANHE(603027) 华安证券·2024-09-10 12:30Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry, highlighting its strong growth potential in the zero-additive soy sauce market [1][63]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rapid increase in penetration rates for zero-additive soy sauce, with Qianhe achieving continuous high growth over four consecutive quarters since Q4 2022 [1][3]. - The zero-additive soy sauce market is projected to reach a scale of 45 billion yuan, with a significant portion (60%) coming from lower-tier markets [1][25]. - Qianhe's product structure is expected to optimize as the zero-additive product ratio increases, leading to improved profit margins [1][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Review: Rapid Increase in Zero-Additive Penetration - The sales share of zero-additive soy sauce rose from 4.7% in Q1 2022 to 11.9% in Q3 2023 [3][4]. - Qianhe has achieved high growth rates of 54.92%, 69.81%, 33.76%, and 48.45% year-on-year in Q4 2022, Q1 2023, Q2 2023, and Q3 2023 respectively [3][5]. 2. Current Trends in the Zero-Additive Market - The price of Qianhe's zero-additive soy sauce has dropped to 5 yuan for 500mL, reflecting a trend towards cost-effectiveness [1][12]. - The online sales share for Qianhe reached approximately 20%, significantly higher than competitors [1][17]. 3. Future Market Space Exploration and Qianhe's Profitability Assessment - The zero-additive soy sauce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.6% over the next ten years, outpacing the overall soy sauce market [1][41]. - Qianhe's gross margin for soy sauce is projected to improve by 1.24 percentage points under neutral assumptions over the next five years [1][46]. 4. Comparison: Insights from Community Group Buying - The report draws parallels between the current trends in zero-additive soy sauce and the community group buying model, emphasizing the importance of cost-effectiveness and proximity to consumers [1][54].