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藏格矿业:2024年半年报点评,锂钾售价下滑盈利承压,巨龙投资收益丰厚

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [9]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 1.76 billion yuan, down 37% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.3 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year [2]. - The lithium business showed an unexpected increase in production, with lithium carbonate output reaching 5,809 tons, up 28.9% year-on-year, while sales volume increased by 56.8% [2]. - The potassium business saw a substantial improvement in Q2 2024, with production and sales volumes significantly higher compared to previous quarters [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.6 yuan per 10 shares and intends to repurchase shares worth 150 to 300 million yuan [2]. Financial Data Summary - For 2022A, the company reported revenue of 8.194 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 126%. However, projections for 2023A show a decline to 5.226 billion yuan, a decrease of 36% [1]. - Net profit for 2022A was 5.655 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 296%, but is expected to drop to 3.420 billion yuan in 2023A, reflecting a 40% decline [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is projected at 2.16 yuan, down from 3.58 yuan in 2022A [1]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to rise from 6.4 in 2022A to 10.6 in 2023A, indicating a shift in valuation [1]. Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding its lithium, potassium, and copper businesses, with new mining permits expected to accelerate operations [3]. - The copper business is projected to see a significant increase in production capacity, with trial production of 200,000 tons expected in early 2026 [3].