上海港湾：软基处理出海龙头，踏“一带一路”基建浪潮

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in soft foundation treatment, benefiting from the "Belt and Road" infrastructure wave, with a significant recovery in performance since 2022, achieving a CAGR of 68% in net profit from 2021 to 2023 [1]. - The demand for foundation treatment is expected to rise due to rapid urbanization in emerging countries, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, where substantial infrastructure investments are planned [1]. - The company has a technological edge with its proprietary "High Vacuum Densification Method," which significantly reduces construction time and costs compared to traditional methods [1]. Company Overview - The company, established in 2001, pioneered the "High Vacuum Densification Method" for soft foundation treatment, expanding its market influence through landmark projects like the Shanghai Pudong Airport [1][13]. - It has extended its operations to overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, with a strong presence in Indonesia and Vietnam [1][13]. Financial Analysis - The company reported a significant increase in revenue, with 2023 revenue reaching 1.277 billion yuan, a 44.3% year-on-year growth [2]. - The net profit for 2023 was 174 million yuan, reflecting an 11% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2022 was 36.3%, slightly decreasing to 34.3% in 2023 due to a higher proportion of lower-margin pile foundation business [23][25]. Industry Analysis - The global foundation treatment market is valued at approximately 363 billion yuan, with a significant portion attributed to soft foundation treatment due to the poor performance of soft soil [1]. - Infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia is projected to exceed 14 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2030, with Indonesia leading the charge [1]. - Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 aims to invest over 3 trillion USD in various mega projects, further driving demand for foundation treatment services [1]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces competition from global players like Keller and Menard, which primarily operate in Europe and North America, while the company focuses on Southeast Asia and the Middle East [1]. - The report highlights that the top three companies in the foundation treatment market hold a combined market share of approximately 17% [1]. Order Growth and Performance Outlook - In the first half of 2024, the company secured new orders worth 1.2 billion yuan, marking a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [1]. - The company anticipates continued growth in new orders, supported by a strong pipeline of infrastructure projects and favorable market conditions [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 222 million yuan, 288 million yuan, and 365 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.90, 1.17, and 1.49 yuan [2]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 20, 15, and 12 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [2].