INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES·2024-09-11 00:10Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.265 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.283 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.81% and 15.07% respectively [6][8]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a significant drop in sales in Hainan, with daily shopping visitors and duty-free sales decreasing [6][9]. - The gross profit margin improved to 33.53% in H1 2024, up 2.92 percentage points year-on-year, due to optimized product structure and enhanced supply chain efficiency [6][9]. - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 11.67%, a slight increase of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, but the Q2 net profit margin decreased to 9.73% [6][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.265 billion yuan, a net profit of 3.283 billion yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 3.238 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of 12.81%, 15.07%, and 16.00% respectively [6][8]. - Q2 2024 figures showed a revenue of 12.458 billion yuan, net profit of 0.976 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 0.939 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.44%, -37.60%, and -39.79% [6][8]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The sales in Hainan faced significant pressure, leading to a revenue decline in H1 2024, with daily shopping visitors and duty-free sales showing negative trends [6][9]. - The company’s various segments showed mixed results, with significant declines in Hainan and Sanya, while the Shanghai duty-free store saw a remarkable recovery [6][22]. Profitability and Margins - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 33.53%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product structure optimization and improved operational efficiency [6][9]. - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 11.67%, with a decrease in Q2 to 9.73%, influenced by rising rental costs and higher tax rates [6][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of city duty-free store policies, which may attract additional demand and open up growth opportunities in the industry [6][28]. - Forecasts for net profit from 2024 to 2026 are projected at 6.099 billion yuan, 7.187 billion yuan, and 8.639 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19.9, 16.9, and 14.1 [6][28].