AECC AP(600893) 广发证券·2024-09-11 02:13Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of aviation engines, focusing on military and civilian aviation engines, gas turbines, and related products. It integrates the full spectrum of domestic military aviation engines and covers various fields including aviation engines, derived products, foreign trade outsourcing, and non-aviation products [1]. - The core investment logic is based on sustained demand and a highly scarce supply structure, positioning the company as a "big single product" type enterprise. The demand side is buoyed by military aircraft updates, the growing application of modified engines driven by clean energy needs, and a broad civil aviation market. The supply side is characterized by a global oligopoly in military and civilian aviation engines, with a clear trend towards domestic production in China [1]. - The company has a competitive advantage as one of the few international firms capable of independently developing aviation engine products. Its existing mature processes and application experience can further consolidate its market position through product diversification [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 37,097 million yuan, with a projected growth rate of 17.9% for 2023, reaching 43,734 million yuan. The expected revenue for 2024 is 51,825 million yuan, with a growth rate of 18.5% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 1,267 million yuan, with a projected increase to 1,421 million yuan in 2023, and further growth to 1,621 million yuan in 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.61 yuan in 2024, 0.80 yuan in 2025, and 1.09 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 70 times for 2024, leading to a reasonable value of 42.57 yuan per share [1][2]. Business Structure - In the first half of 2024, the company generated 171.60 billion yuan from aviation engines and derived products, accounting for 92.52% of total revenue. Foreign trade outsourcing contributed 10.04 billion yuan (5.41%), while non-aviation products and other businesses accounted for 3.60 billion yuan (1.94%) and 2.84 billion yuan (1.53%) respectively [9][10]. - The company has a history of over 20 years and is primarily owned by the China Aviation Engine Group, which holds 45.79% of the shares [11][12]. Growth Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for its products and services, with a projected revenue of 497.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 15.12 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.79% and 6.48% respectively [19][20]. - The company has shown a stable increase in revenue and net profit over the years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.77% for revenue and 7.18% for net profit from 2019 to 2023 [14].