金雷股份：经营短暂承压，合同负债同增有望带动交付景气

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately 710 million yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70 million yuan, down 63% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 460 million yuan, an increase of 27% year-on-year, while net profit was 40 million yuan, down 55% year-on-year [3][4]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to industry product price factors. The wind power main shaft and other precision shafts generated revenues of 450 million yuan and 160 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 32% and an increase of 40%. In Q2, the company benefited from a rapid increase in the shipment volume of main shafts, leading to over 20% year-on-year revenue growth [4]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 21%, a decrease of approximately 15 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow was a net inflow of about 110 million yuan, with capital expenditures of approximately 140 million yuan, indicating active capacity expansion [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company had a gross profit margin of 21%, with a sales expense ratio of 1.03%, a management expense ratio of 6.25%, and a research expense ratio of 5.58%, all showing year-on-year increases. The financial expense ratio was approximately -1.97%, a decrease of about 1.60 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased interest income [4]. - The company’s inventory and contract liabilities were 830 million yuan and 30 million yuan, respectively, indicating a proactive stocking strategy that may support future delivery performance [4][5]. - The forecast for 2024 indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 410 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of about 12 times [4].