SAIC MOTOR(600104) 长江证券·2024-09-11 02:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SAIC Motor (600104 SH) [7] Core Views - SAIC Motor's 2024 H1 revenue was RMB 284 69 billion, down 12 8% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 6 63 billion, down 6 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 1 02 billion, down 82 0% YoY [2][5] - Despite intense market competition, the company demonstrated relatively stable profitability, with continuous optimization of its sales structure [2][5] - In Q2 2024, SAIC Motor's wholesale sales reached 993,000 units, down 15 9% YoY but up 19 0% QoQ, with passenger vehicle registrations at 565,000 units, down 29 2% YoY and 20 3% QoQ [5] - The company's Q2 2024 revenue was RMB 141 61 billion, down 21 6% YoY and 1 0% QoQ, while operating income was RMB 138 10 billion, down 21 4% YoY and 0 6% QoQ [5] - SAIC Motor's Q2 2024 net profit attributable to parent company was RMB 3 91 billion, down 9 0% YoY but up 44 2% QoQ, with a net profit margin of 2 8%, up 0 4pct YoY and 0 9pct QoQ [5] - The company's Q2 2024 automotive business gross margin was 8 2%, down 1 3pct YoY and 0 6pct QoQ, while the expense ratio was 10 4%, up 1 5pct YoY but down 0 2pct QoQ [5] - SAIC Motor's Q2 2024 investment income was RMB 5 73 billion, up 79 5% YoY and 108 0% QoQ, with joint venture investment income at RMB 0 04 billion, significantly declining both YoY and QoQ [5] - The company's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 310,000 units in Q2 2024, up 49 5% QoQ, while overseas market deliveries reached 279,000 units, up 3 7% QoQ [5] - SAIC Motor is accelerating its intelligent and electric vehicle layout, with technologies such as DMH super hybrid, full-stack 3 0 intelligent vehicle solutions, and solid-state batteries being rapidly commercialized [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 14 89 billion, RMB 15 61 billion, and RMB 16 72 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9 5X, 9 1X, and 8 5X [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - SAIC Motor's 2024E revenue is projected to be RMB 756 507 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 14 891 billion [12] - The company's 2025E revenue is expected to reach RMB 774 582 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 15 611 billion [12] - For 2026E, SAIC Motor's revenue is forecasted to be RMB 797 203 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 16 719 billion [12] - The company's 2024E EPS is projected to be RMB 1 29, with a P/E ratio of 9 55X and a P/B ratio of 0 47 [12] - SAIC Motor's 2025E EPS is expected to be RMB 1 35, with a P/E ratio of 9 11X and a P/B ratio of 0 45 [12] - The company's 2026E EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1 44, with a P/E ratio of 8 50X and a P/B ratio of 0 43 [12] Business Highlights - SAIC Motor's joint venture performance showed mixed results in Q2 2024, with SAIC Volkswagen sales at 264,000 units (down 4 7% YoY, up 6 4% QoQ), SAIC GM sales at 114,000 units (down 57 0% YoY, up 2 3% QoQ), and SAIC-GM-Wuling sales at 346,000 units (up 5 6% YoY, up 54 5% QoQ) [5] - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, with a focus on consolidating its presence in Western Europe and South America while exploring emerging markets in Eastern Europe [5] - SAIC Motor has launched several new energy vehicle models, including the IM L6, Roewe D5X, and Buick GL8 plug-in hybrid, with the SAIC Volkswagen ID family achieving monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units [6]