SHCI(SH:601225) Haitong Securities·2024-09-11 06:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company has signed an asset transfer intention agreement with its controlling shareholder, Shaanxi Coal Group, to acquire all shares of Shaanxi Coal Power Group, which is expected to enhance the profitability stability through coal-power integration [6][8] - The acquisition target, Shaanxi Coal Power Group, has a power generation capacity of approximately 10.8 GW and achieved a net profit of 0.043 yuan per kWh in 2023 [6] - The estimated total funding for the acquisition is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan, with the company having sufficient cash reserves to support the purchase without affecting its cash dividend capability [6][8] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 170,872 million yuan, with a slight increase of 2.4% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 21,239 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 39.7% year-on-year [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 2.24 yuan, with a projected net profit of 21,708 million yuan [7][10] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to decline from 37.9% in 2023 to 36.4% in 2024 [7][10] Business Segmentation - The self-produced coal business is expected to see a sales volume of 16,368 million tons in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 5.27%, while the average selling price is projected to decrease by 14.12% [8] - The trading coal business is anticipated to have a sales volume of 8,954 million tons in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 29.04% [8] - Total operating revenue is expected to reach 1,708.7 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight year-on-year growth of 2.41% [8] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 21,708 million yuan in 2024, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 13-14 times, leading to a reasonable value range of 29.11 to 31.35 yuan per share [6][10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be approximately 22.2% in 2024, down from 23.8% in 2023 [7][10]