GCL TECH(03800) 甬兴证券·2024-09-11 07:52Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating due to the company's continuous cost reduction and quality improvement in granular silicon, with expected recovery in profitability as polysilicon prices gradually recover [3] Core Views - The company reported revenue of 8 863 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 57 7%, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 1 480 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 126 8% [2] - Polysilicon shipments reached approximately 126 400 tons in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24 99%, with an average external selling price of 40 3 yuan/kg [2] - Granular silicon shipments to the top three customers accounted for 62 2% of total shipments, with the company's 420 000-ton polysilicon nominal capacity fully operational [2] - Granular silicon quality improved significantly, with N-type silicon accounting for over 96% of production, and total metal impurities in 5 elements reduced to below 1ppbw [2] - R&D expenditure increased to 718 million yuan in H1 2024, with an R&D expense ratio exceeding 8%, up 3 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 17 160 billion yuan, 30 523 billion yuan, and 42 118 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -49%, +78%, and +38% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be -1 915 billion yuan, 1 567 billion yuan, and 4 354 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -176%, +182%, and +178% [3] - The stock's PE ratio for 2025 and 2026 is estimated at 20x and 7x, respectively [3] Operational Highlights - Granular silicon cash cost is expected to drop below 30 yuan/kg, with significant improvements in product quality and impurity levels [2] - The company obtained 65 patents in H1 2024, including 16 invention authorizations, focusing on granular silicon, industrial silicon, silane gas, perovskite, and CCZ technologies [2] - The company aims to achieve full-scale production of GW-level granular silicon lines by the end of 2024 [2] Market and Valuation - The stock's closing price was 1 17 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 0 89-1 64 yuan and a market capitalization of 28 688 billion yuan [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 8 31x, 3 61x, and 2 17x, respectively [8]