BABA(09988) 民生证券·2024-09-11 10:03Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for the company, with an expected adjusted EPS of 7.85/8.62/9.53 yuan for FY2025-2027, and a corresponding adjusted PE of 9/9/8 times based on the closing price on September 10 [2] Core Views - The company has reorganized its strategy to focus on "user-first" and "AI-driven" priorities, with a renewed emphasis on e-commerce and cloud computing [1] - E-commerce competition is easing, and the company's traditional strengths in shelf-based e-commerce are expected to stabilize market share [2] - Cloud computing, driven by AI, has significant growth potential, with the company leading in both scale and technology [1][2] E-commerce - The e-commerce sector is seeing a slowdown in low-price competition, with the company improving user experience and optimizing merchant operations [1] - Measures include "refund-only" policies, free shipping to Xinjiang, and upgrades to the 88VIP program [1] - The company has introduced new tools like "Full-Site Promotion" to boost merchant growth and CMR revenue [1] Cloud Computing - The company leads in domestic IaaS and PaaS market share, with a comprehensive IaaS+PaaS+MaaS architecture [1] - 80% of tech companies and over half of AI large model companies in China operate on the company's cloud platform [1] - AI and large models are expected to drive significant growth in cloud computing [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 941.168 billion yuan in FY2024 to 1,169.964 billion yuan in FY2027, with a CAGR of 7.6% [3] - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from 158.359 billion yuan in FY2024 to 183.445 billion yuan in FY2027, with a CAGR of 11% [3] Shareholder Returns - The company has the largest share buyback program among Chinese internet companies, with a shareholder return rate of 9.4% (dividends + buybacks) for FY2024 [2] Historical Development - The company has evolved from a B2B platform to a comprehensive internet giant, with key milestones including the launch of Taobao, Tmall, and AliCloud [6][7] - Recent strategic shifts include a focus on e-commerce and cloud computing, with significant organizational changes in 2023 [8][9] Organizational Changes - The company has undergone multiple organizational restructurings, including the "1+6+N" reform in 2023, which established six major business groups [10][11] - Key leadership changes include the appointment of Joseph Tsai as Chairman and Eddie Yongming Wu as CEO in September 2023 [12] Market Position - The company is a leader in both e-commerce and cloud computing, with Taobao and Tmall being the largest digital retail platforms globally [6] - AliCloud is the fourth-largest IaaS provider globally and the largest in the Asia-Pacific region [6] Competitive Landscape - The e-commerce sector is facing increased competition from platforms like Pinduoduo and Douyin, but the company's traditional strengths in shelf-based e-commerce are expected to stabilize market share [1][2] - Cloud computing is expected to see significant growth, driven by AI and large models, with the company leading in both scale and technology [1][2]