Semir(002563) 长江证券·2024-09-12 01:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Semir Garment (002563 SZ) [5] Core Views - Semir Garment's H1 2024 revenue and net profit outperformed peers, with revenue reaching 5 95 billion yuan (+7 1% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 553 million yuan (+7 1% YoY) [1][2] - Q2 2024 revenue grew 10 1% YoY to 2 82 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 206 million yuan (+0 7% YoY) [2] - The company achieved net store openings of 203 in H1 2024, accounting for 2 5% of existing stores, with a focus on direct-operated stores [3] - Gross margin improved by 1 5 percentage points in H1 2024, driven by tighter product discounts and improved supply chain management [3] - Inventory quality improved significantly, with inventory decreasing by 10% YoY to 2 85 billion yuan and inventory turnover days decreasing by 48 days to 159 days [4] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue breakdown by channel: direct-operated +5 0%, franchised +11 8%, e-commerce +3 4% [3] - H1 2024 revenue breakdown by business: casual wear +7 7%, children's wear +6 4% [3] - Gross margin by business in H1 2024: casual wear 38 6% (-2 1pct YoY), children's wear 49 6% (+3 1pct YoY) [3] - Gross margin by channel in H1 2024: direct-operated 67 2% (-3 22pct YoY), franchised 38 1% (-1 45pct YoY), e-commerce 47 4% (+5 70pct YoY) [3] - Q2 2024 operating expense ratio decreased by 0 3 percentage points YoY to 33 3% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2024 as channel inventory optimization and quality improvement continue [4] - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026: 1 22 billion yuan, 1 43 billion yuan, and 1 59 billion yuan, respectively [4] - Corresponding PE ratios for 2024-2026: 10X, 9X, and 8X [4] Market Performance - Current stock price (as of September 10, 2024): 4 66 yuan [5] - 12-month high/low: 6 74 yuan / 4 36 yuan [5] - Market performance comparison: Semir Garment underperformed the CSI 300 Index and Shanghai Composite Index over the past 12 months [6]