RSPC(002493) 国泰君安·2024-09-12 04:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Accumulate" with a target price of 11.20 RMB, down from the previous target of 14.04 RMB [1][6]. Core Views - The company's mid-year performance was impacted by rising oil prices and weaker-than-expected demand recovery. The collaboration with Saudi Aramco aims to expand the downstream market, and the continued share buyback by the controlling shareholder reflects confidence in the company's future [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 857 million RMB, a significant turnaround from losses in the previous year, with a non-recurring net profit of 672 million RMB, up 148% year-on-year. However, Q2 net profit was 306 million RMB, down 14.5% year-on-year and 47.8% quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. - The average Brent crude oil price in Q2 2024 was 85 USD per barrel, a slight increase from 83.46 USD in Q1 2024. The gross margins for refining and chemical products were 18.57%, 14.72%, and -1.14% respectively for H1 2024 [6][7]. Market and Strategic Developments - The company has signed multiple strategic agreements with Saudi Aramco to jointly develop projects and expand into overseas markets. The controlling shareholder plans to increase their stake in the company by investing between 500 million to 1 billion RMB, which is expected to boost investor confidence [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2025 have been revised down to 0.24, 0.69, and 1.16 RMB, respectively, from previous estimates of 0.47, 0.74, and 0.83 RMB due to lower-than-expected demand for refined oil and the impact of polyester plant shutdowns [6][7].