POP MART(09992) 华创证券·2024-09-12 13:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) with a target price of HKD 56 2 [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's 2024 H1 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of RMB 4 56 billion (+62 0% YoY) and net profit of RMB 960 million (+102 0% YoY) [1] - Domestic market revenue grew 31 5% YoY to RMB 3 21 billion driven by strong performance across all channels [1] - Overseas markets saw explosive growth with revenue surging 259 6% YoY to RMB 1 35 billion accounting for 29 7% of total revenue [1] - Gross margin improved by 3 6 ppts to 64 0% due to supply chain optimization and higher contribution from high-margin overseas sales [1] - The company plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in H2 2024 [1] Domestic Market Performance - Offline channels: Retail store revenue grew 24 7% YoY with 11 new stores opened and single-store sales up 13% [1] - Online channels: Revenue increased 34 0% YoY with strong growth in Douyin (+91%) and Tmall (+28%) [1] - Wholesale and other: Revenue surged 90 8% YoY driven by immersive IP experiences in theme parks [1] Overseas Market Expansion - Southeast Asia: Revenue grew 478% YoY with the LABUBU theme store in Bangkok achieving daily sales of RMB 10 million [1] - North America and Europe: Revenue increased 378% and 159% YoY respectively [1] - Offline channels: Retail store revenue surged 442% YoY with 13 new stores opened [1] - Online channels: Revenue grew 335% YoY led by strong performance on Lazada (+387 9%) and Shopee (+205 2%) [1] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: RMB 10 579 billion (+66 7%) RMB 13 855 billion (+31 0%) RMB 16 822 billion (+21 4%) [1] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: RMB 2 152 billion (+98 9%) RMB 2 858 billion (+32 8%) RMB 3 537 billion (+23 7%) [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: RMB 1 60 RMB 2 13 RMB 2 63 [1] Valuation - 2024-2026 PE ratios: 28X 21X 17X [1] - 2024-2026 PB ratios: 6 1X 4 7X 3 7X [1]