Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry despite a slight increase in the combined ratio (COR) due to frequent natural disasters in the first half of 2024. The company has a solid pricing and scale advantage, which is anticipated to enhance its market share [3][4]. Summary by Sections Profitability - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024 is projected to decline by 8.7% year-on-year to 18.491 billion yuan. The underwriting profit is expected to be 8.999 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year, primarily due to the increase in the combined ratio caused by natural disasters. Investment income is forecasted to decrease by 7.8% to 13.971 billion yuan, with a total investment return rate dropping by 0.4 percentage points to 2.2% (not annualized) [1][3]. Combined Ratio - The combined ratio for the first half of 2024 is expected to rise by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 96.2%, with the loss ratio increasing by 1.2 percentage points to 70.1% and the expense ratio decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 26.1% [1]. Premium Income - The company achieved original premium income of 311.996 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, maintaining a market share of 34%. Insurance service income reached 235.841 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year, continuing to lead the industry [1]. Business Segments - Auto Insurance: Insurance service income grew by 5.3% year-on-year to 145.157 billion yuan, with underwriting profit increasing by 13.3% to 5.202 billion yuan. The combined ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 96.4% [2]. - Accident and Health Insurance: Insurance service income rose by 7.5% year-on-year to 24.751 billion yuan, but underwriting profit fell by 96.3% to 0.13 billion yuan due to increased compensation standards [2]. - Agricultural Insurance: Insurance service income decreased by 7.0% year-on-year to 23.292 billion yuan, while underwriting profit increased by 14.6% to 2.572 billion yuan, driven by improved risk management [2]. - Liability Insurance: Insurance service income grew by 8.4% year-on-year to 18.339 billion yuan, but underwriting loss was 0.747 billion yuan due to changes in business structure [3]. - Enterprise Property Insurance: Insurance service income increased by 6.3% year-on-year to 8.862 billion yuan, but underwriting profit fell by 94.3% to 0.038 billion yuan due to increased disaster losses [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to face pressure on its investment side due to anticipated fluctuations in the capital market. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2025 has been adjusted to 26.6 billion yuan and 29 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 8.38% and 8.79%, respectively. A new forecast for 2026 net profit of 31.5 billion yuan has been added [3].
中国财险：灾害频发致COR小幅上行，看好未来龙头地位持续巩固