ZHIFEI-BIOL(300122) 海通证券·2024-09-13 00:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 18.258 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 25.31%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.234 billion yuan, down 47.55% [4] - Sales of the shingles vaccine continue to progress, with over 20,000 terminal usage units covered nationwide and 1.6069 million doses approved for sale in the first half of 2024, indicating significant market potential [4] - The company is advancing its research pipeline, with several projects making positive progress, including a quadrivalent recombinant norovirus vaccine entering phase III clinical trials and a 26-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine entering phase I/II trials [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to have net profits of 6.974 billion yuan, 8.175 billion yuan, and 10.929 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -13.5%, 17.2%, and 33.7% respectively [4] - The revenue forecast for 2024 is 40.682 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23.1%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [6][8] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be between 10 and 12 times for 2024, with a reasonable value range of 29.14 to 34.96 yuan per share, leading to a market capitalization estimate of 69.7 billion to 83.7 billion yuan [4][7]