晨光股份：Q2增速保持稳健，产品渠道持续向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chenguang Stationery (603899 SH) with a target price of 36 95 yuan per share [4] Core Views - Chenguang Stationery reported H1 2024 revenue of 11 051 billion yuan, up 10 95% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 633 million yuan, up 4 71% YoY [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 5 566 billion yuan, up 9 58% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 6 59% YoY to 253 million yuan [2] - Traditional business remained stable, while new businesses showed strong growth [2] - Chenguang Technology revenue in Q2 2024 was 240 million yuan, up 28% YoY, driven by accelerated e-commerce investments and cross-platform expansion [2] - Kelipu revenue in Q2 2024 was 3 17 billion yuan, up 11% YoY, supported by diversified development in office supplies, MRO industrial products, marketing gifts, and employee benefits [2] - Retail stores revenue in Q2 2024 was 360 million yuan, up 19% YoY, with improved store efficiency and digital member engagement [2] - Gross margin in Q2 2024 was 18 7%, down 0 7 percentage points YoY, mainly due to product mix changes [2] - Net profit margin in Q2 2024 decreased by 0 96 percentage points YoY to 4 76%, impacted by business structure changes and employee stock incentive costs [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 26 204 billion yuan in 2024E to 33 499 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 12 2%-12 9% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 1 707 billion yuan in 2024E to 2 199 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 11 7%-15 3% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1 85 yuan in 2024E to 2 38 yuan in 2026E [3] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 14 36x in 2024E to 11 15x in 2026E, reflecting improved valuation [3] Business Performance - Traditional business maintained steady growth, with a focus on core product categories and improved product quality [2] - Chenguang Technology and retail stores are in the investment phase, contributing to revenue growth but impacting profitability [2] - Kelipu continues to expand its customer base despite changes in the office procurement environment [2] Valuation and Recommendations - The report values Chenguang Stationery at 20x PE for 2024, with a target price of 36 95 yuan per share, based on comparable company analysis [2][4]