Anjoy food(603345) 华创证券·2024-09-13 14:23Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 100 CNY [1] Core Views - The report focuses on the growth potential and bottom line of Anjoy Foods from a product category perspective, emphasizing the company's efficient business model and its ability to sustain growth through new product launches and category expansion [1] - Anjoy's growth is driven by a "1-3-6" golden growth curve, where new products contribute 30% to revenue growth, second-year products contribute 50-60%, and older products maintain a natural growth rate of 10-20% [13][15] - The company's main business has not yet reached its ceiling, with potential for further expansion in categories such as frozen food, particularly in family, barbecue, and catering markets [1][8] - Anjoy's product expansion strategy focuses on serialization, premiumization, and localization, with a conservative estimate of 1 billion CNY annual revenue growth in its main business [1][8] Category Perspective Frozen Food Growth Model - Anjoy's growth is driven by a "new product foundation, second-year product scaling, and old product natural growth" model, with a focus on efficient category management [13] - The company follows a "1-3-6" golden growth curve, where new products are introduced, scaled, and then maintained, ensuring stable growth for 2-3 years [13][15] - The scale of individual products is influenced by product attributes and channel breadth, with basic categories having higher ceilings, typically ranging from 100-500 million CNY, while 1 billion CNY products are rare [17][18] Market Potential and Expansion - Anjoy's main business has not yet reached its ceiling, with potential for further expansion in categories such as frozen food, particularly in family, barbecue, and catering markets [1][8] - The company's product expansion strategy focuses on serialization, premiumization, and localization, with a conservative estimate of 1 billion CNY annual revenue growth in its main business [1][8] - Anjoy's product categories are more concentrated compared to Japanese counterparts, with 39 products exceeding 100 million CNY in sales, accounting for over 70% of revenue, while Japanese companies have a more diversified product mix [1][8] Product Expansion Strategy - Anjoy's success is attributed to its differentiated product selection, cost leadership, and efficient market response, which have enabled it to build a platform advantage [8] - The company's product expansion strategy is divided into three tiers: - Tier 1: Focus on large-scale, high-end products such as sausages and shrimp paste, targeting the family and high-end markets [8] - Tier 2: Strengthen incremental sources with products like chicken-based prepared foods and hotpot ingredients, typically in the range of several billion CNY [8] - Tier 3: Explore potential categories such as processed aquatic products and regional specialty products, which lack mature development paths [8] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 14,045 million CNY in 2023 to 18,885 million CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,478 million CNY in 2023 to 1,803 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.3% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 5.04 CNY in 2023 to 6.15 CNY in 2026, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 13x to 11x [2] Key Product Categories Sausages - Sausages are a high-growth, large-scale product category with significant potential for structural upgrades and diversification [35] - The market size for sausages is estimated to be between 20-30 billion CNY, with major players like Shuanghui and Yuguang dominating the market [36][37] - Anjoy has strategically positioned sausages as a core product, with high investment in marketing and distribution, achieving rapid sales growth [43] Shrimp Paste - Shrimp paste has evolved from a niche product in hotpot restaurants to a mainstream product with a market size exceeding 10 billion CNY [44][45] - The industry is characterized by high gross margins and strong demand from both B2B and B2C channels, with significant potential for further expansion [45] - Anjoy plans to focus on shrimp paste as a key product category, with plans for in-house production and a series of new product launches [50] Chicken-Based Prepared Foods - Chicken-based prepared foods, such as crispy pork, have become a national-level product with a market size of nearly 6 billion CNY [51][52] - The product is versatile, with applications in various dining scenarios, including hotpot, snacks, and main dishes, making it a high-potential category [52] - Anjoy is expected to continue expanding its presence in this category, leveraging its existing strengths in product development and distribution [52]