Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 58.76 [7][10]. Core Views - The approval of the first domestic IL-4Rα monoclonal antibody, Sipuqibai, for treating moderate to severe atopic dermatitis (AD) is expected to unlock significant commercial potential due to its superior efficacy and early market entry [2][3]. - The company has established a robust sales team of over 140 members, enhancing its competitive edge in the skin autoimmune market, which remains vibrant [3][4]. - The pipeline includes promising indications such as chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) and allergic rhinitis, which are anticipated to receive approval in 1H25 and 2025, respectively, further boosting sales potential [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are revised to RMB 1.80 billion, RMB 5.00 billion, and RMB 14.56 billion, respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [10]. - The net loss estimates for the same period are adjusted to RMB 8.43 billion, RMB 9.12 billion, and RMB 4.39 billion, respectively [10]. - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB (3.02), RMB (3.26), and RMB (1.57) [6][10]. - The DCF-based target price is set at HKD 58.76, with a WACC of 11.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.5% [10]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - Sipuqibai has shown excellent clinical efficacy with 52-week EASI-75, EASI-90, and IGA 0/1 scores of 92.5%, 77.1%, and 67.3%, respectively, outperforming competitors [3]. - The company is positioned to capture significant market share in CRSwNP and allergic rhinitis due to unmet medical needs and limited competition [4]. - The early pipeline includes CM313 and CMG901, with ongoing clinical trials expected to yield positive results [5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is the fastest in promoting CD38 antibody treatments for autoimmune diseases, with promising results in ITP and SLE [5]. - The establishment of a strong commercial team and the strategic focus on high-demand indications are expected to enhance the company's market position [3][4].
康诺亚-Ｂ：前程万里，首款国产IL-4Rα单抗获批