TKGF(601233) 华创证券·2024-09-14 14:09Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's filament profits continue to recover, with H1 2024 performance close to the midpoint of the forecast [1] - The filament industry's improved structure led to a strong rebound in Q1 performance, with full-year performance expected to be promising [1] - The company is a leader in the filament industry, and its overseas project in Indonesia strengthens its integrated advantages [1] - The company's revenue for H1 2024 reached 48.215 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.67%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.065 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 911.35% [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue: 48.215 billion yuan (+30.67% YoY) [1] - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.065 billion yuan (+911.35% YoY) [1] - Q2 2024 revenue: 27.103 billion yuan (+29.16% YoY, +28.38% QoQ) [1] - Q2 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 485 million yuan (-18.13% YoY, -16.31% QoQ) [1] - H1 2024 filament sales: 5.8737 million tons (+32% YoY) [1] - Q2 2024 filament sales: 3.2887 million tons (+27.2% QoQ) [1] Industry and Market Position - The company has a filament production capacity of 13.5 million tons and a PTA production capacity of 10.2 million tons [1] - The company holds an 18% global market share and a 28% domestic market share in the filament industry, ranking first globally [1] - The company is focusing on upstream refining and chemical integration, with a significant project in Indonesia expected to enhance profitability [1] Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at 15.3 yuan, based on a 2024 PE ratio of 15x [1] - The current PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 10x, 8x, and 6x, respectively [1] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.02 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.61 yuan, respectively [1] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue: 93.395 billion yuan (+13.0% YoY) [2] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders: 2.463 billion yuan (+209.0% YoY) [2] - 2025E revenue: 100.029 billion yuan (+7.1% YoY) [2] - 2025E net profit attributable to shareholders: 3.162 billion yuan (+28.4% YoY) [2] - 2026E revenue: 115.432 billion yuan (+15.4% YoY) [2] - 2026E net profit attributable to shareholders: 3.873 billion yuan (+22.5% YoY) [2]