JCET-长电科技深度报告：龙头持续领跑先进封装

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is a global leader in integrated circuit packaging and testing, with a 10.3% market share in the global OSAT market, ranking third globally [5] - The demand for advanced packaging is increasing due to the AI wave and high demand for HPC chips, with the global AI market expected to reach $27404.6 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of over 20.4% [6] - The company has a strong global presence with eight production bases and two R&D centers, focusing on advanced packaging technologies such as FIWLP, FOWLP, TSV, and SiP [6] - The company's revenue for Q2 2024 reached RMB 8.645 billion, a record high for the second quarter, with a gross margin of 14.28%, up 2.08 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] Company Overview - The company is a global leader in integrated circuit packaging and testing, with a 10.3% market share in the global OSAT market, ranking third globally [12] - The company has a strong global presence with eight production bases and two R&D centers, focusing on advanced packaging technologies such as FIWLP, FOWLP, TSV, and SiP [14] - The company's revenue for 2023 was RMB 29.661 billion, with an operating profit of RMB 1.52 billion [12] Advanced Packaging - Advanced packaging is becoming a major growth driver in the packaging and testing market, with the global advanced packaging market expected to reach$ 72.4 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 8.7% [19] - The company has been actively investing in advanced packaging technologies, with R&D expenses of RMB 1.44 billion in 2023 and 2,897 R&D personnel [6] - The company's advanced packaging technologies include FIWLP, FOWLP, TSV, eWLB, SiP, and FCBGA, among others [6] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q2 2024 reached RMB 8.645 billion, a record high for the second quarter, with a gross margin of 14.28%, up 2.08 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company's net profit for 2023 was RMB 1.471 billion, a decrease of 54.5% year-on-year, but is expected to recover to RMB 1.992 billion in 2024, RMB 2.756 billion in 2025, and RMB 3.519 billion in 2026 [7] - The company's free cash flow has been positive for four consecutive years (2020-2023), with a free cash flow of RMB 1.37 billion in 2023 [45] Industry Trends - The global semiconductor packaging market is recovering, driven by stable consumer demand, a rebound in the memory market, and the rise of AI and HPC applications [34] - The global AI market is expected to reach $27404.6 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of over 20.4%, driving demand for advanced packaging [6] - The global advanced packaging market is expected to reach$ 72.4 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 8.7% [19] Valuation and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow to RMB 31.391 billion in 2024, RMB 36.569 billion in 2025, and RMB 42.513 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.25% [49] - The company's net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.992 billion in 2024, RMB 2.756 billion in 2025, and RMB 3.519 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio of 26.0x, 18.8x, and 14.7x respectively [50] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 17.0% in 2024, 18.0% in 2025, and 18.5% in 2026 [49]