XfmGroup(SH:603225) Huachuang Securities·2024-09-16 06:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][4][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.27 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 605 million yuan, up 26.17% year-on-year. Q2 2024 saw revenues of 16.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.32% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.38% [1]. - The polyester filament industry is experiencing improved profitability, with expectations for continued recovery as the peak season approaches in Q3 2024. The domestic downstream demand for polyester filament has been strong, with sales volume in H1 2024 reaching 3.39 million tons, a 6.7% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company has demonstrated strong cost control capabilities, with a decrease in sales expense ratio and an increase in R&D expense ratio. The sales expense ratio for H1 2024 was 0.14%, down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company is steadily expanding its production capacity, with a total filament capacity of 7.4 million tons and plans to add 400,000 tons in 2024 and 650,000 tons in 2025. The company also has a PTA capacity of 5 million tons, with plans to increase it to 5.4 million tons [1]. - The investment suggestion includes a downward revision of profit expectations for 2024-2026, with projected net profits of 1.527 billion yuan, 2.069 billion yuan, and 2.705 billion yuan respectively. The target price is set at 15 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 15x for 2024 [1][2]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the main revenue is projected at 62.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.527 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 40.6% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is estimated at 1.00 yuan, with a PE ratio of 10x [2][5]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 48.52 billion yuan by 2024E, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 63.0% [8].