申通快递：件量增长强劲，业绩表现超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in parcel volume, with a year-on-year increase of 29.2% to 5.64 billion parcels in Q2 2024, leading the industry and increasing its market share to 13.1% [4][5]. - Revenue for Q2 2024 reached 11.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 250 million yuan, up 188.8%, exceeding the forecast performance [4][5]. - The company has significantly improved its core costs due to scale effects and capacity enhancements, leading to a 0.02 yuan increase in net profit per parcel, reaching 0.04 yuan [4][5]. - The current industry valuation is at a low point, and with the peak season approaching, an increase in parcel prices is expected to drive valuation recovery in the sector [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue was 21.57 billion yuan, a 13.0% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 440 million yuan, up 100.2% [4]. - For Q2 2024, the total cost per parcel decreased to 1.90 yuan, down 0.37 yuan year-on-year, while the gross profit per parcel increased by 0.02 yuan [4][5]. - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net inflow of 1.26 billion yuan in Q2 2024, a 59.5% increase year-on-year [4][5]. Market Position - The company has enhanced its operational capacity, completing 12 capacity enhancement projects in the first half of 2024, which has led to an average daily parcel volume exceeding 65.5 million in June [4][5]. - The company is expected to continue its infrastructure investments, aiming for a daily throughput capacity of over 75 million parcels by the end of the year [4][5]. Future Outlook - The projected net profits for the company are 860 million yuan, 1.37 billion yuan, and 1.57 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18.0, 11.4, and 9.9 [5].