SF Holding(002352) 华创证券·2024-09-17 23:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for SF Holding (002352) with a target price of 49.7 CNY, representing a 37% upside from the current price of 36.12 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - Since 2022, SF Holding's net profit margin has been continuously improving, with Q2 2024 performance exceeding expectations. However, the company's valuation has declined, reflecting market concerns about the sustainability of this net profit margin improvement [5][11]. - The report analyzes net profit margin sustainability through three dimensions: cost, revenue, and international business [5][6]. Cost Analysis - The company has achieved significant cost reductions, with cost savings from multi-network integration exceeding 6 billion, 8 billion, and 11 billion CNY from 2021 to 2023, respectively, and approximately 6 billion CNY in H1 2024 [5][19]. - The operational model transformation supports ongoing cost reductions, categorized into "1+3": multi-network integration, optimization of capacity, transfer, and terminal links [25][26]. - The rising labor costs for delivery personnel are being addressed through a shift from cost centers to revenue expansion, enhancing employee engagement and operational efficiency [5][6]. Revenue Analysis - The demand for time-sensitive express delivery remains resilient, with revenue growth rates of 6.8%, 9.2%, and 5.6% in 2022, 2023, and H1 2024, respectively, all exceeding GDP growth [5][6]. - The company has the highest market share in time-sensitive express delivery, which drives incremental demand through quality improvements and product diversification [5][6]. International Business Analysis - The international business segment is viewed as a high-margin opportunity, with significant growth potential driven by China's industrial upgrades and the need for global logistics service providers [5][6]. - SF Holding has established a competitive advantage with the largest fleet of dedicated cargo aircraft in the domestic market, enhancing its international service capabilities [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the profitability of the international business segment will enter an upward trajectory [5][6]. Financial Projections - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 9.86 billion, 11.71 billion, and 13.91 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [7][8]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 20% to 35% in 2023, with a commitment to gradually increase the payout ratio from 2024 to 2028 [7][8].