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梦百合:欧洲表现突出,北美重回增长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within 6 months [13] - The 6-month rating for the company is "Overweight" (downgraded from a previous rating) [2] Core Views - The company's 24Q2 revenue reached 2.13 billion yuan, up 11.9% YoY, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 30 million yuan, down 59.5% YoY [2] - For 24H1, the company's revenue was 3.95 billion yuan, up 9.6% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 53 million yuan, down 46.1% YoY [2] - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased sales expenses [2] - The European market performed strongly, with revenue reaching 900 million yuan in 24H1, up 26.7% YoY, setting a new historical high [2] - The North American market showed signs of recovery, with 24Q2 revenue up 4.1% YoY, driven by factors such as the third round of anti-dumping measures and increased orders from US factories [2] - Domestic market revenue grew 18.8% YoY in 24H1, with the company's own brand revenue reaching 529 million yuan, up 18.76% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin for 24H1 was 38.1%, up 2.1 percentage points YoY, while the net profit margin was 1.3%, down 1.4 percentage points YoY [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's A-share total market capitalization is 30.6976 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 30.6976 billion yuan [1] - The company's net asset per share is 6.84 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.99% [1] - The company's 24H1 revenue breakdown shows that 80.1% came from overseas sales, while 17.1% came from domestic sales [2] - The company's gross margin for overseas sales was 37.5%, up 3.1 percentage points YoY, while the domestic gross margin was 42.8%, up 1.1 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 8.85327 billion yuan in 2024E to 11.55484 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 15.5% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 160.35 million yuan in 2024E to 365.80 million yuan in 2026E [6] - The company's EPS is expected to grow from 0.28 yuan in 2024E to 0.64 yuan in 2026E [6] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 19.14X in 2024E to 8.39X in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation [6] Business Strategy - The company focuses on both ODM and OBM strategies, optimizing customer structure and expanding product offerings in the ODM segment [2] - In the OBM segment, the company emphasizes product upgrades, marketing, and channel construction, aiming to enhance brand awareness [3] - The company is actively exploring cross-border e-commerce channels, including platforms like Amazon, Wayfair, and Walmart, while also developing its independent EGOHOME brand [3] - The company is a global partner of Manchester United and the official supplier of stress-relief products for the Chinese national Go team [4] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the light manufacturing/home furnishing industry and is one of the early players in the memory foam home product market [4] - The company has a global production base layout, with multiple manufacturing facilities worldwide [4] - The company's overseas performance is influenced by macroeconomic fluctuations, while domestic consumption recovery remains weak [4]