奥瑞金：金属包装拐点已至，盈利能力持续改善

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.20 RMB per share based on a 15X PE valuation for 2024 [2][3]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the Chinese metal packaging industry, with a significant focus on two-piece and three-piece can manufacturing, which accounted for approximately 87% of its revenue in 2023. The gross margin has rebounded to 15.2%, indicating a return to an upward trend [2][5]. - The report highlights the improving profitability in the two-piece can segment due to rising canization rates in the beer market and a reduction in competition, while the three-piece can segment is diversifying its customer base to mitigate risks associated with its major client, China Red Bull [2][5][37]. - The company is also exploring innovative business opportunities and expanding its product offerings, including self-branded consumer products and renewable energy projects [2][5][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been in the metal packaging industry for over 30 years and has diversified its operations to include filling services and innovative products. It has established a strong market position with a production capacity exceeding 230 billion cans per year [2][15][18]. Two-Piece Can Segment - The two-piece can segment is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by higher canization rates in the beer industry. The market competition is easing, which is anticipated to improve profit margins [2][5][37]. - In 2022, the revenue from two-piece cans was approximately 56.7 billion RMB, representing about 40.3% of the company's total revenue [2][37]. Three-Piece Can Segment - The three-piece can segment generated around 57 billion RMB in revenue in 2022, with over 70% of the market concentrated among a few major brands. The company is actively seeking to reduce its reliance on China Red Bull by expanding its customer base [2][5][12]. Other Business Segments - The filling business has faced short-term challenges, but the company is actively pursuing innovative business opportunities, including self-branded products and renewable energy projects [2][5][19]. - The report notes that the company is exploring overseas markets and has begun to establish a presence in regions such as Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe [2][19]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 897 million RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.77%. The overall industry is nearing a profitability inflection point, which is expected to enhance the company's financial performance [2][4][5].