YINGJIA DISTILLERY(SH:603198) Orient Securities·2024-09-19 05:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 55.35 yuan based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2024 [3][7][4]. Core Views - The overall consumption of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to be flat, but the company is likely to continue its strong performance from the first half of the year. The company achieved a revenue of 3.79 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.4%, and a net profit of 1.379 billion yuan, up 29.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The 100-300 yuan price range is highlighted as having significant potential, benefiting from a downward shift in consumption price bands in Anhui province. Consumers are moving from the 300-500 yuan range to the 200-300 yuan range, which favors local brands like the company [2]. - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence and improving channel profitability, which enhances its competitive edge. The company emphasizes maintaining profits for distributors and end channels, particularly in rural markets where disposable income growth is outpacing urban areas [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 3.69 yuan, 4.65 yuan, and 5.46 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The projected revenue for 2024 is 8.216 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.3% [6][7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 71.4% in 2023 to 73.2% in 2024, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 34.0% to 36.0% over the same period [6][11].