温氏股份：回购方案彰显信心，畜禽成本稳步回落

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has announced a share repurchase plan, demonstrating confidence in its future development and recognition of its value, with a repurchase price not exceeding 27.01 CNY, representing a 77.7% premium over the closing price on September 18 [1] - The company aims to repurchase 0.5%-1% of its total share capital, with a total investment of 900 million to 1.8 billion CNY [1] - The overall stability in pig farming and continuous improvement in key production indicators, along with a steady decline in costs, are highlighted as positive factors for the company's future performance [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 89.921 billion CNY, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -6.390 billion CNY [3][4] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 112.561 billion CNY, with a significant recovery in net profit expected at 10.257 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 260.5% [3][5] - The company anticipates a gradual increase in pig and chicken output over the next few years, with expected net profits of 102.57 billion CNY in 2024, 154.5 billion CNY in 2025, and 129.55 billion CNY in 2026 [2][5] Production and Cost Analysis - The company has seen a 19% year-on-year increase in pig output from January to August 2024, with a total of 19.05 million pigs slaughtered [1] - The comprehensive cost of pig farming has decreased from 15.2 CNY/kg in Q1 to 13.8-14 CNY/kg in July 2024, indicating a positive trend in cost management [1] - The company is implementing measures to reduce piglet costs, which have decreased by 80-90 CNY per head since the beginning of the year, contributing to lower overall farming costs [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its position as the second-largest pig farming enterprise and the largest yellow feather chicken farming enterprise in China, with a forecasted increase in net profit driven by stable market conditions and improved operational efficiency [2][6] - The anticipated growth in output and profitability is supported by a favorable market environment for both pork and poultry products, with expectations of normal profitability in the yellow feather chicken industry in 2024 [2][6]