GW COMPOS(300699) 国泰君安·2024-09-19 22:37Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Guangwei Composites with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 38.76 RMB, corresponding to a 36x PE for 2024 [3][11] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the dual growth in aerospace equipment and domestic civil aircraft orders, driving demand for carbon fiber [3] - Guangwei Composites is a leading supplier of carbon fiber for aerospace applications, with a comprehensive product portfolio and ongoing capacity expansion [3][19] - The company's performance is expected to grow steadily, supported by the completion of the 4,000-ton carbon fiber project in Inner Mongolia [3] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,511 million RMB in 2022 to 3,552 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 7.2% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 934 million RMB in 2022 to 1,120 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 3.7% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.12 RMB in 2022 to 1.35 RMB in 2026 [3] Industry Overview - Carbon fiber demand is driven by the aerospace and defense sectors, with applications in military aircraft, commercial aircraft, and satellites [3][26] - The global carbon fiber market is experiencing rapid growth, with China leading in production capacity, accounting for 47.7% of global capacity in 2023 [42][43] - Aerospace remains the largest application market for carbon fiber, with a 49.9% share by value in 2023 [39] Company Analysis - Guangwei Composites has a diversified product portfolio, including T300, T700, T800, and MJ series carbon fibers, catering to both aerospace and industrial applications [47][48] - The company's aerospace segment accounted for 67.56% of revenue in 2023, with significant growth in new aerospace-grade carbon fiber products [48] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with the Inner Mongolia project adding 4,000 tons of high-performance carbon fiber capacity [47] Market Opportunities - The aerospace sector is expected to see continued growth, driven by the increasing use of carbon fiber in both military and commercial aircraft [3][49] - The domestic civil aircraft market, particularly the C919, presents a significant opportunity for carbon fiber demand, with over 1,000 orders already placed [3] - The low-altitude economy and eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) vehicles are emerging as new growth areas for carbon fiber applications [11] Competitive Landscape - Guangwei Composites is one of the key players in the domestic carbon fiber market, alongside companies like Zhongjian Technology and Zhongfu Shenying [47] - The company's competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive product range and strong presence in the aerospace sector [19][47] - Global competitors include Japanese firms like Toray and Mitsubishi, which dominate the high-end carbon fiber market [47]