BABA(09988) 东吴证券·2024-09-20 04:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Alibaba-W (09988 HK) [1] Core Views - Alibaba's GMV growth is benefiting from user repurchase behavior and payment interoperability, with expectations of further CMR revenue growth driven by the rollout of site-wide promotion tools [1] - The report highlights Alibaba's competitive advantages in the e-commerce sector, particularly through its comprehensive SKU ecosystem and user experience [3] - Alibaba's integration of Pinduoduo's traffic strategies and the innovation of its promotion tools are expected to drive CMR revenue growth [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 941 168 million in FY2024 to RMB 1 194 600 million in FY2027, with a CAGR of 8 34% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from RMB 158 359 million in FY2024 to RMB 181 541 62 million in FY2027 [2] - EPS (Non-GAAP) is forecasted to rise from RMB 8 13 in FY2024 to RMB 9 47 in FY2027 [2] Competitive Analysis - Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall are leveraging a store logic approach, focusing on comprehensive shopping experiences and brand-centric SKU ecosystems, which contrasts with Pinduoduo's product logic that emphasizes low prices and limited SKUs [3][12] - Alibaba's strategy includes subsidizing merchants and users to enhance stickiness, with the integration of WeChat Pay expected to drive new user growth [3][22] - The report notes that Pinduoduo's cost advantages are diminishing due to rising logistics and commission fees, while Alibaba is replicating promotional strategies to support small and medium-sized merchants [3][20] Promotion and Monetization - Alibaba's site-wide promotion tools are expected to improve advertising ROI and increase Take Rate, creating a positive cycle for GMV and CMR revenue growth [3][33] - The report highlights that Alibaba's promotion tools, such as the upgraded "Wanxiangtai Wujieban" and "Site-wide Promotion," are designed to simplify advertising processes and enhance efficiency [3][35] - The integration of promotion tools is expected to accelerate the monetization of natural traffic, with advertising revenue and GMV projected to rise simultaneously [3][39] User Growth and Engagement - E-commerce user growth is nearing saturation, but Alibaba's integration with WeChat Pay could unlock new growth opportunities, given WeChat's higher MAU compared to Taobao [3][24] - The report emphasizes that Alibaba's strategy is shifting towards increasing order frequency rather than user acquisition, with subsidies and low prices driving user stickiness [3][27] Industry Trends - The report compares Alibaba to Walmart and Pinduoduo to Costco, highlighting Alibaba's focus on supply chain efficiency and comprehensive SKU coverage as key competitive advantages [12] - The e-commerce industry is moving towards a model where increasing order frequency and user engagement are more critical than acquiring new users [3][27]