Kingsoft Office(688111) 天风证券·2024-09-20 06:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a 6-month outlook [4] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to significantly benefit from the new innovation cycle in the technology sector, with upward revisions to profit forecasts for the next three years [1] - The technology innovation sector is entering a 2.0 phase, driven by policy support and a trillion-yuan national bond issuance, which is expected to boost the sector's growth [1] - The company's institutional licensing business is projected to experience rapid growth due to the expansion of the technology innovation market, particularly in the government and enterprise sectors [2][3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upward from 51.37/60.75/73.16 billion yuan to 52.20/64.75/80.95 billion yuan, representing growth rate adjustments of 2pct/6pct/5pct [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 15.52/19.54/24.05 billion yuan to 16.16/22.91/30.66 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [6] - The company's EPS is projected to grow from 2.42/2.85/3.49 yuan per share in 2022-2024 to 4.95/6.63 yuan per share in 2025-2026 [6] Market Opportunities - The government sector has a PC replacement potential of nearly 2000 million units, with an estimated annual replacement of 400/450/500 million units from 2024-2026, creating a revenue opportunity of 20/22.5/25 billion yuan for the company's office software [3] - The company's office software products are expected to see increased demand from government and enterprise users, driven by the technology innovation policies and funding support [2][3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue growth rate is projected to be 14.58% in 2024, increasing to 24.05% and 25.02% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - The company's net profit growth rate is expected to rise from 22.66% in 2024 to 41.76% in 2025 and 33.83% in 2026 [6] - The company's ROE is forecasted to increase from 14.44% in 2024 to 17.93% in 2025 and 20.58% in 2026 [8] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 53.22 in 2024 to 37.55 in 2025 and 28.06 in 2026 [6] - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 7.69 in 2024 to 6.73 in 2025 and 5.77 in 2026 [6] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to drop from 44.31 in 2024 to 30.92 in 2025 and 22.36 in 2026 [6]