GUANGHUI ENERGY(600256) 德邦证券·2024-09-20 10:23Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading energy enterprise in Xinjiang with a comprehensive industrial chain layout, focusing on traditional energy sectors such as natural gas, coal, coal chemical, and oil & gas exploration, while also actively transitioning to new energy fields like CCUS and hydrogen energy [3] - The coal business has significant capacity growth potential, with a total coal resource of 65.97 billion tons and recoverable reserves of 59.12 billion tons, and plans to increase production capacity to 85 million tons/year in the future [3][45] - The natural gas business is expanding with flexible sales strategies, and the LNG receiving station in Qidong is expected to reach a turnover capacity of 10 million tons/year by 2025 [3][63] - The coal chemical business benefits from high oil prices and has a cost advantage due to self-supplied raw materials, with stable production and sales of products like methanol, coal tar, and ethylene glycol [4][72] Business Segments Coal Business - The company has three mining rights with a total coal resource of 65.97 billion tons and recoverable reserves of 59.12 billion tons [3] - The Baihu Lake mine has a current production capacity of 35 million tons/year, with plans to increase to 40 million tons/year [3] - The Malang mine, with a capacity of 10 million tons/year, has high-calorific value coal (6,132 kcal/kg) and plans to expand to 25 million tons/year [3] - The Eastern mining area has recoverable reserves of over 3 billion tons and is expected to contribute 20 million tons/year during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] Natural Gas Business - The company's self-produced natural gas comes from the Jimunai and Hami plants, with capacities of 500 million cubic meters/year and 700 million cubic meters/year, respectively [3] - The Qidong LNG receiving station has a current turnover capacity of 5 million tons/year, with plans to expand to 10 million tons/year by 2025 [3][63] - The company is actively seeking new gas sources for the Jimunai plant as the Zaysan oilfield transitions to crude oil production [3] Coal Chemical Business - The company's coal chemical products include methanol, coal tar, upgraded coal, ethylene glycol, and dimethyl disulfide, with raw materials sourced from its own coal mines, ensuring low production costs [4][72] - The methanol production capacity is 1.2 million tons/year, with a 99% equity stake, and the ethylene glycol production capacity is 400,000 tons/year, with a 95% equity stake [71] - The coal chemical business benefits from high oil prices, with methanol, coal tar, and ethylene glycol prices maintaining high levels in 2024 [74] Oil Business - The company holds a 52% stake in the Zaysan oilfield in Kazakhstan, with proven oil reserves of 258 million tons and potential reserves of 400 million tons [79][80] - The company plans to achieve an annual crude oil production of 100,000 tons in 2024 and aims to reach a production scale of 3 million tons/year in the future [79] Financial Forecast - The company's net profit is expected to be 4.86 billion yuan in 2024, 6.18 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.52 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.9x, 6.2x, and 5.9x [4] - The coal business is expected to contribute 14.45 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross profit of 4.01 billion yuan [82]