今世缘更新报告：佳酿增力，优势强化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.26 CNY [4][5]. Core Views - The company's core products are experiencing high turnover and increasing market share, with capacity expansion reinforcing the competitive advantage of its flagship product, Guoyuan. The de-stocking cycle highlights the company's competitive edge, and the logic of market share will continue to strengthen [4][14]. - The company has recently invested in 20,000 tons of new raw liquor capacity, bringing total raw liquor capacity close to 60,000 tons. This expansion is expected to significantly support product pricing and market share growth for the Guoyuan series [4][14]. - The demand for mid-range and lower-tier products remains relatively inelastic, with the Guoyuan series showing strong growth in core markets. The company is focusing on deepening channels in markets outside its home province [4][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - The report maintains earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 at 3.04 CNY, 3.67 CNY, and 4.26 CNY respectively [4][11]. - Revenue projections are set at 12,362 million CNY for 2024, 14,685 million CNY for 2025, and 17,023 million CNY for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 22.4%, 18.8%, and 15.9% respectively [11][14]. Market Position - The company is expected to benefit from a de-stocking cycle, with market share becoming a more significant indicator of brand influence than pricing. The focus will shift towards maintaining market share over product structure and profit margins [4][14]. - The Guoyuan series is currently in a product dividend period, aligning well with consumer trends, and its capacity advantages are anticipated to be gradually released [4][14]. Operational Insights - The company is observing a clear operational differentiation trend among enterprises, with the demand for mid-range products remaining robust. The Guoyuan series continues to lead in growth rates in both the northern and southern markets [4][14].