Megmeet(002851) 国泰君安·2024-09-22 01:23Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating with a target price adjustment to CNY 30.50 [3][4] Core Views - Performance meets expectations with strong growth in overseas markets and AI high-power power supply benefiting from demand from international leading companies [2][3] - Revenue and non-GAAP net profit show rapid growth: H1 2024 revenue reached CNY 4.011 billion, up 22.05% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined 19.27% YoY to CNY 315 million [3] - Overseas business performance is outstanding: H1 2024 overseas revenue was CNY 1.394 billion, up 34.24% YoY, with a gross margin of 31.23%, 8.25 percentage points higher than domestic business [3] - AI server shipments are growing, with global AI server shipments reaching 1.18 million units in 2023, up 34.5% YoY, and expected to grow 41.5% in 2024 to 1.67 million units [3] Financial Highlights - Revenue forecast for 2024E is CNY 8.486 billion, up 25.6% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach CNY 777 million, up 23.5% YoY [8] - EPS for 2024E is projected at CNY 1.54, with a P/E ratio of 14.78x [8] - ROE is expected to increase from 14.2% in 2023A to 15.2% in 2024E [8] - Gross margin for 2024E is forecasted at 25.6%, slightly higher than 24.9% in 2023A [8] Overseas Market Expansion - The company has been expanding overseas for a decade, with R&D centers in the US and Europe, and representative offices covering North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia [3] - Manufacturing capabilities have been established in India and Thailand over the past five years [3] - Smart home appliance control products revenue in H1 2024 was CNY 2.006 billion, up 43.55% YoY, driven by overseas demand and domestic equipment renewal policies [3] AI and High-Power Power Supply - Power supply products revenue in H1 2024 was CNY 1.097 billion, up 13.05% YoY, accounting for 27.36% of total revenue [3] - The company is collaborating with a leading international company on AI server power supply needs, indicating significant future market potential [3] Valuation and Market Data - Current price is CNY 22.25, with a 52-week price range of CNY 18.92-31.15 [5] - Market capitalization is CNY 11.213 billion, with total shares outstanding of 504 million and A-shares of 416 million [5] - P/B ratio is 2.4x, with a net debt ratio of 10.78% [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 6.754 billion in 2023A to CNY 13.453 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 21.9% [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from CNY 629 million in 2023A to CNY 1.109 billion in 2026E [8] - ROE is forecasted to rise steadily from 14.2% in 2023A to 16.3% in 2026E [8]