贵州茅台：更新报告：稳预期、强信心，首推回购注销

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) [4][6][19] Core Views - The company has announced a share repurchase plan with an investment of 3-6 billion RMB, following a previous commitment to a 75% dividend payout, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder returns and confidence in achieving a 15% total revenue growth target for the year [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company is responding positively to national policies and has planned a share repurchase of 3-6 billion RMB, which is expected to enhance market confidence. The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected at 68.41 RMB, 78.82 RMB, and 90.11 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 2240.12 RMB based on a 33X price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 [4][6] - The share repurchase plan, announced on September 20, aims to buy back and cancel 1.67-3.34 million shares, representing 0.13%-0.27% of the total share capital, at a maximum price of 1795.78 RMB per share, which is a 42% premium over the closing price on that date [4][6] - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% over the next three years, indicating strong shareholder return policies [4][6] Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 150.56 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected growth of 15.3% to 173.56 billion RMB in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 85.94 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 15% increase [12][14] - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a net profit margin of 52.7% in 2022, projected to remain stable in the coming years [12][14] Market Position - Guizhou Moutai is positioned as a leading player in the liquor industry, with a strong market presence and operational flexibility to adapt to market changes. The company has been actively managing product pricing and inventory to stabilize market conditions [4][12] - The report highlights the company's ability to maintain a healthy inventory level and manage pricing effectively, which is crucial in the current market environment [4][12]