一拖股份：崛起东方，走向全球

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 19.85 CNY per share [2] Core Views - The company is a leader in China's tractor industry with a dominant market share and is in the early stages of international expansion [2] - The company's net profit margin has steadily increased from 2.2% in 2019 to 8.6% in 2023 due to management reforms and cost control [2] - The company has a competitive advantage in product quality, brand recognition, and distribution channels, with 100% self-production capability for core tractor components [2] - Domestic demand for tractors has stabilized, with growth driven by the increasing proportion of high-horsepower tractors [2] - The company's overseas revenue reached 985 million CNY in 2023, a 38.54% YoY increase, with significant growth potential in non-US markets [2] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 12.78 billion CNY in 2024E to 16.21 billion CNY in 2026E, with a CAGR of 12.2% [4] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 1.17 billion CNY in 2024E to 1.53 billion CNY in 2026E, with a CAGR of 12.4% [4] - The company's ROE is expected to remain stable at around 14.8% from 2024E to 2026E [4] Domestic Market Analysis - China's tractor market is stable, with annual production around 550,000 units, and demand is shifting towards high-horsepower models [2][53] - The company holds a 25% market share in China, ranking first in the 140-200 horsepower segment [2] - The company benefits from policy support, including subsidies for high-horsepower and advanced transmission tractors [62] International Expansion - The company's overseas revenue grew 38.54% YoY in 2023, reaching 985 million CNY, with a focus on Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2] - The global tractor market outside North America, Europe, and China is estimated at 47.9 billion USD, offering significant growth potential [2] - The company's YTO brand has gained recognition in overseas markets, with products tailored to local conditions [44] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong R&D capability, with a 4% R&D expense ratio, leading to advanced technologies such as continuously variable transmission (CVT) tractors [22][32] - The company's distribution network covers all 31 provinces in China, with a focus on county-level markets, providing a competitive edge over international brands [48] - The company's self-production of core components allows for better cost control and higher profitability compared to competitors [28]