BABA(09988) 浙商证券·2024-09-22 02:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - Alibaba is positioned as a leader in domestic internet e-commerce and cloud computing, facing three marginal changes: the core business Taobao's GMV is returning to growth, international e-commerce revenue continues to grow rapidly, and other businesses are nearing breakeven [1] - The company is undergoing fundamental adjustments, has high valuation attractiveness, and is in a favorable funding environment, indicating medium to long-term investment value [1] Summary by Sections 1. Taobao Group - Taobao's GMV share is expected to stabilize and recover due to the peak of live e-commerce and internal strategic adjustments [2] - The new service fee rules are anticipated to bring commission increments and enhance monetization rates, with the "All-Station Push" advertising product expected to improve ROI for small and medium-sized merchants [2][3] - The internal strategy focuses on enhancing user experience, increasing platform traffic, and promoting merchant return, which is expected to boost GMV [2] 2. International E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing a trend towards refined development, with significant growth potential in Southeast Asia [3] - The international e-commerce business, driven by the "Choice" service, is expected to maintain high growth rates, with projected revenues of 1296.32 billion, 1556.20 billion, and 1842.97 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [10] 3. Cloud Computing - The cloud computing industry in China is growing rapidly, with market size increasing from 322.9 billion to 616.5 billion from 2021 to 2023, representing a CAGR of 38.18% [4] - Alibaba Cloud remains the leader in the IaaS market, benefiting from the demand for high computing power driven by AI models [4][7] 4. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for Alibaba are 10125.53 billion, 10983.71 billion, and 11968.13 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27, with growth rates of 7.58%, 8.48%, and 8.96% respectively [10] - The expected net profit for the same periods is 1045.19 billion, 1217.72 billion, and 1678.78 billion, with growth rates of 30.78%, 16.49%, and 37.82% respectively [10][11] - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 14.56X, 12.50X, and 9.07X for FY25, FY26, and FY27 [10][11]