HAI TIAN(603288) 华鑫证券·2024-09-22 05:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has launched a 2024-2028 employee stock ownership plan, involving no more than 800 participants, with funding sources including employee legal income and company incentive funds The 2024 plan is funded by a special incentive fund of 18435 million yuan, with a performance target of at least 10 8% YoY growth in net profit attributable to the parent company (excluding the impact of share-based payment expenses) [2] - The seasoning industry has shifted from medium-high growth to medium-low growth, showing resilience and structural opportunities in areas such as health-oriented and compound seasonings The company is adapting to fragmented marketing scenarios, expanding online and gifting demand, and transforming scale advantages into manufacturing advantages and network advantages into user advantages [2] - The company is continuously optimizing its product portfolio, developing vinegar and cooking wine categories, and promoting health-oriented and differentiated products to empower the development of compound seasonings [2] - The company has adjusted its 2024-2026 EPS forecasts to 1 12/1 23/1 34 yuan (previously 1 12/1 21/1 30 yuan), with current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 32/29/27 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 24559 million yuan in 2023 to 32823 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -4 1%, 12 0%, 9 7%, and 8 7% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 5627 million yuan in 2023 to 7477 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -9 2%, 10 8%, 9 9%, and 9 2% respectively [3] - Diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1 01, 1 12, 1 23, and 1 34 yuan for 2023-2026, with ROE remaining stable at around 19 4%-19 8% [3] - Gross margin is expected to slightly increase from 34 7% in 2023 to 35 2% in 2026, while net margin is projected to remain stable at around 22 7%-23 0% [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on optimizing its supply chain and strategic layout, leveraging digital tools to empower distributors and enhance market penetration [2] - Efforts are being made to clear out underperforming distributors and improve profitability through team expansion and user resource accumulation [2] - The company is advancing stable growth in the catering channel by leveraging cost leadership advantages [2] - Product development is centered around expanding beyond soy sauce, oyster sauce, and soybean paste, with a focus on vinegar, cooking wine, and health-oriented categories [2]