中远海能：全球油气航运龙头，油运上行凸显价值

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [2][5] Core Views - The company is a global leader in oil and gas shipping, with the largest oil tanker fleet globally [2][5] - The crude oil shipping cycle is on an upward trend, and the refined oil shipping market remains highly prosperous [2][3] - The company's performance is highly correlated with the oil shipping cycle, with international oil shipping being the main source of earnings elasticity [2][13] - The demand for crude oil shipping is expected to increase due to longer shipping distances and limited supply, particularly for VLCCs [2][21][27] - The refined oil shipping market is expected to remain strong due to increased demand from east-to-west oil movements and limited supply growth [34][37] Business Overview - The company focuses on oil and gas transportation, including international and domestic crude oil, refined oil, and LNG shipping [2][13] - The company's historical performance was influenced by both dry bulk and oil shipping cycles, but since 2016, it has focused solely on oil and gas transportation [13][14] - The company's VLCC fleet is the core driver of its earnings elasticity, with each $10,000/day change in TCE contributing approximately RMB 950 million in marginal profit [18][19] Market Outlook Crude Oil Shipping - Demand for crude oil shipping is expected to grow due to increased global crude oil production and longer shipping distances, particularly from the Americas to the Far East [21][27] - Supply is constrained by limited shipyard capacity, with VLCC deliveries expected to be very limited from 2024-2026 [21][22] - The VLCC fleet is aging, with the number of ships expected to decline from 908 in 2024 to 807 in 2028 due to retirements exceeding new deliveries [30][31] - OPEC+ production cuts and non-OPEC production increases are expected to support VLCC demand, particularly in the Q4 2024 peak season [30][31] Refined Oil Shipping - Demand for refined oil shipping is expected to remain strong due to the east-to-west movement of refined oil and increased refining capacity in Asia [34][37] - Supply growth is limited by an aging fleet and environmental regulations, with only 45.15% of the current order book expected to be delivered by 2025 [37][41] - The aging fleet and environmental regulations are expected to further constrain supply, particularly for older ships [41] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 26.37 billion in 2024 to RMB 29.66 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 5.81 billion to RMB 7.48 billion over the same period [5][43] - The oil transportation business is expected to contribute the majority of revenue and profit, with revenue growing from RMB 24.44 billion in 2024 to RMB 27.48 billion in 2026 [6][43] - LNG transportation revenue is expected to grow modestly, from RMB 1.84 billion in 2024 to RMB 2.11 billion in 2026 [6][43] Valuation - The company's current PE ratios are 10.84x for 2024, 8.92x for 2025, and 8.04x for 2026, based on projected earnings [5][43] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 15.45% in 2024 to 16.74% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [4][43]