豪迈科技深度报告：全球轮胎模具龙头，高端数控机床黑马

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Haomai Technology (002595) for the first time [6][8] Core Views - Haomai Technology is a global leader in tire molds and a rising star in high-end CNC machine tools, with three main business segments: tire molds, large mechanical parts, and CNC machine tools [2] - The company has demonstrated growth beyond economic cycles, with revenue and net profit CAGR of 22% and 20% respectively from 2007 to 2023 [2] - The tire mold business is the core profit driver, contributing 53% of revenue and 66% of gross profit in 2023 [2] - The CNC machine tool business is expected to be a new growth driver, with revenue increasing 112% YoY to 308 million yuan in 2023 [4] Business Segments Tire Mold Business - Global market leader with 30% market share in 2023, serving 66 of the world's top 75 tire companies [3] - The global tire mold market size was 12.8 billion yuan in 2023, expected to grow at a CAGR of 0.8% from 2023 to 2030 [3] - Revenue from tire molds reached 3.79 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 43.1% [3] Large Mechanical Parts Business - Main products include gas turbine and wind power components, with major clients such as GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries [3] - Revenue from this segment was 2.77 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 39% of total revenue [3] - Gross margin improved to 23.4% in 2023 due to product structure optimization and cost reduction [3] CNC Machine Tool Business - The global machine tool consumption reached 625.9 billion yuan in 2023, with China accounting for 29% [4] - Haomai's CNC machine tool revenue grew 112% YoY to 308 million yuan in 2023 [4] - The domestic high-end five-axis CNC machine tool market size was 11.2 billion yuan in 2023, with low localization rate providing growth opportunities [4] Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 10.22 billion yuan in 2026 [4][8] - Net profit is projected to grow at a CAGR of 14%, reaching 2.42 billion yuan in 2026 [4][8] - The PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 18x in 2024 to 14x in 2026 [4][8] Industry Analysis Tire Industry - The global tire market size was 190 billion USD in 2023, expected to grow at a CAGR of 2% to 218.9 billion USD by 2030 [33] - Replacement demand accounts for over 70% of total tire demand [34] - The top three global tire companies (Michelin, Bridgestone, Goodyear) hold a combined market share of 37% [36] Machine Tool Industry - China is the world's largest machine tool consumer, accounting for 29% of global consumption in 2023 [58] - The localization rate of high-end CNC machine tools in China is only 6%, indicating significant room for import substitution [61] - The domestic five-axis CNC machine tool market size was 11.2 billion yuan in 2023 [63]