中原高速：聚焦主业做大规模，加强分红提升价值

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) with a target price of 4.71 yuan for the next 6 months [1] Core Views - The company is the leading road and bridge operator in Henan Province, with toll revenue accounting for nearly 80% of total revenue in H1 2024 [1] - The company has completed the integration of its real estate sector by transferring equity to Henan Jiaotou Yikang Investment Development Co Ltd [1] - The company has implemented an active dividend policy, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 40% for the first time, offering a dividend yield of approximately 4% [1] Company Overview - The company operates key highways in Henan Province, including Airport Expressway, Zhengzhou-Zhumadian section of Jinggang'ao Expressway, and Zhengzhou-Yaoshan section of Zheng-Luan Expressway, with a total managed mileage of 808 kilometers [1] - The company's core business is toll collection, which provides stable income and profit, with toll revenue accounting for nearly 80% of total revenue in H1 2024 [1] Industry Analysis - The highway industry has weak cyclicality and strong risk resistance, with China's highway construction investment reaching 1.6 trillion yuan in 2023, maintaining a high level despite a 1.9% year-on-year decline [1] - Highway demand is expected to remain stable, supported by further improvements in road infrastructure and the central government's policy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" [1] Real Estate Sector Integration - The company's real estate business adopts a rolling development model, with projects mainly located in Zhengzhou and third- and fourth-tier cities [1] - Real estate sales revenue declined from 850 million yuan in 2021 to 210 million yuan in 2023, with gross margins also decreasing from 47.5% to 26.6% over the same period [1] - The company has completed the integration of its real estate sector by transferring equity to Henan Jiaotou Yikang Investment Development Co Ltd [1] Financial Optimization and Dividend Policy - The company has optimized its debt structure, replacing 4.91 billion yuan of long-term debt in H1 2024, saving 60 million yuan in interest expenses [1] - The company has implemented an active dividend policy, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 40% for the first time, offering a dividend yield of approximately 4% [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to be 5.55 billion yuan, 5.58 billion yuan, and 5.67 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 870 million yuan, 930 million yuan, and 990 million yuan [1] - The company's PB ratio is expected to be 0.7x, 0.7x, and 0.6x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a target price of 4.71 yuan based on a 0.9x PB ratio for 2024 [1] Key Financial Data - Toll revenue for 2021-2023 and H1 2024 was 4.63 billion yuan, 3.63 billion yuan, 4.62 billion yuan, and 2.15 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The company's comprehensive gross margin was 41.2%, 20.5%, 41.8%, and 46.8% for 2021-2023 and H1 2024, respectively [1] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio was 73.51%, 74.60%, 70.51%, and 70.38% at the end of 2021-2023 and H1 2024, respectively [1]