BTBP(600161) 诚通证券·2024-09-23 08:03Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Tiantan Biological Products (600161 SH) as of September 20 2024 [6][7] Core Views - Tiantan Biological has transformed into a pure blood products company after restructuring in 2017, focusing on plasma-derived products [1] - The company has become the industry leader with 102 plasma collection stations (80 operational, 22 under construction) and 2415 tons of plasma collected in 2023 [1] - Tiantan Biological has expanded its product matrix to 8 approved products in 2023, with plans to increase to 9 products by covering all major categories of plasma-derived products [2] - The company is building three major plasma processing bases (Yong'an, Kunming, Lanzhou) with total planned capacity of 3600 tons/year to break through production bottlenecks [2][46] Business Restructuring - Tiantan Biological completed a two-step restructuring in 2017-2018 to focus on blood products [15] - Step 1: Transferred vaccine business to parent company and acquired Guizhou Zhongtai [16] - Step 2: Acquired three major blood product assets (Shanghai, Wuhan, Lanzhou) through Chengdu Rongsheng [16] - The restructuring achieved synergies in plasma station management, product complementarity, and R&D coordination [19][20] - The company exceeded its three-year performance commitment after restructuring [26] Plasma Collection Expansion - Tiantan Biological has expanded plasma collection through multiple channels [1] - Increased stake in Chengdu Rongsheng to 74 01% [27] - Obtained 43 new plasma station approvals in 2021-2022 [1] - Acquired Xi'an Huitian (63 69% stake) and Zhongyuan Ruide (100% stake) to expand in Shaanxi and Hubei [36][37] - The company's plasma collection increased from 1400 tons in 2017 to 2415 tons in 2023, with a CAGR of 9 6% [34] - New plasma stations typically take 3-4 years to reach full capacity, with 20 new stations starting operation in 2023 [1] Product Development - Tiantan Biological has expanded its product portfolio to cover all major categories of plasma-derived products [2] - 8 approved products in 2023, with plans to increase to 9 products [2] - Added recombinant coagulation factor VIII and high-purity IVIG (10%) to its product line [44] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin reached record highs in 2023 at 50 8% and 29 1% respectively [45] - Plasma utilization rate has improved with the expansion of product lines [39] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 6 16 billion yuan in 2024 to 8 19 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15 2% [3][55] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1 39 billion yuan in 2024 to 1 90 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 17 0% [3][55] - Plasma collection is forecasted to reach 2669 tons in 2024, 3079 tons in 2025, and 3418 tons in 2026 [54] Valuation - As of September 20 2024, Tiantan Biological's PE (TTM) is 32 1x, 13 4% higher than the industry average [6][7] - The company's ton-plasma market value is 20 60 million yuan, based on 2024E equity plasma volume of 1975 tons [7] - Tiantan Biological's ton-plasma output value reached 2 145 million yuan in 2023, still below the industry average of 2 408 million yuan [55]