TFME(002156) 华金证券·2024-09-23 11:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Tongfu Microelectronics (002156 SZ) [1] Core Views - Tongfu Microelectronics' Memory Phase II project has achieved significant progress, with the first equipment installed and a new cleanroom area of 8,000 square meters added, capable of producing 150,000 wafers per month [1] - The company's advanced packaging base project has commenced, focusing on multi-layer stacking, flip-chip, wafer-level, and panel-level packaging, with a total investment of 7 5 billion yuan [1] - The global memory market is expected to grow by 64% in 2024, driven by AI investments and supply adjustments, with NAND Flash and DRAM markets projected to grow by 70 6% and 58 1% respectively [1] - Tongfu Microelectronics is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 25 28 billion yuan in 2024, 29 23 billion yuan in 2025, and 34 56 billion yuan in 2026 [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 15 6% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit margins improving from 3 8% in 2024 to 4 7% in 2026 [4] - EPS is expected to increase from 0 63 yuan in 2024 to 1 06 yuan in 2026, with P/E ratios declining from 28 9x in 2024 to 17 2x in 2026 [4] - ROE is projected to improve significantly, from 7 0% in 2024 to 10 0% in 2026, reflecting stronger profitability and operational efficiency [4] Industry and Market Trends - The memory market is experiencing strong growth due to AI-driven demand, with NAND Flash and DRAM markets expected to reach 680 billion USD and 808 billion USD respectively in 2024 [1] - Smartphone applications are expected to consume 37% of NAND Flash capacity in 2024, while enterprise-level applications, particularly in AI and server upgrades, are driving demand for high-performance memory products [1] Technological Advancements - Tongfu Microelectronics has made significant progress in advanced packaging technologies, including 16-layer chip stacking and WB cavity shielding, with high yield rates [3] - The company is developing FCBGA chip packaging technology using glass substrates and glass interposers, targeting high-performance applications in photonic communication, consumer electronics, and AI [3] - Tongfu Microelectronics has also completed the development of the Easy3B module, which is entering small-scale production, offering improved thermal resistance and power consumption compared to traditional modules [3]